Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:10:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

56
0x56ec…5f73
crypto · 933 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$548 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$635 · open −$53
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$162
Realized−$635
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses649 / 274
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions10
Markets (closed)923 / 933
History coverage58d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day49.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 10 History 923 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$229
7 days−$209
14 days−$209
30 days−$209
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? No 54¢ 37¢ $157 $107 −$49 (-31%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? No 86¢ 86¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? No 17¢ 8¢ $7 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Under 22¢ 22¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No 23¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 36¢ 33¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 41¢ 40¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 59¢ 62¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-21%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 23, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day? No 16¢ 0¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $1,500 +$20 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $2,271 +$133 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1,959 −$80 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $238 +$1 +0%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 14 $22 +$3 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $766 −$67 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $787 −$7 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $370 −$8 -2%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 14 $20 +$3 +13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $105 +$2 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $724 −$7 -1%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 14 $59 −$2 -3%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $7 $0 +4%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 14 $326 −$13 -4%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 14 $16 +$3 +18%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 13 $259 −$5 -2%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $130 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 13 $94 −$4 -4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $202 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $271 +$4 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 13 $103 −$5 -5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 13 $466 −$49 -10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $938 −$2 -0%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $57 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $115 −$7 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $26 $0 +0%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $65 +$2 +3%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $32 +$1 +4%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 12 $13 $0 -2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 12 $85 −$85 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $490 −$14 -3%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $63 +$30 +47%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $547 −$6 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $589 −$54 -9%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $601 +$32 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $239 −$25 -10%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 12 $162 −$7 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 12 $278 −$20 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $74 +$1 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $157 $0 +0%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 -9%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 12 $8 +$1 +17%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $38 −$5 -14%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $31 +$1 +3%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $8 $0 -2%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $118 −$1 -1%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $57 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 57% −$428
world 33% −$176
tech 6% −$122
sports 2% +$33
other 2% +$2
finance 0% $0
politics 0% +$4
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 86¢ $43 19m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $19 28m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 16¢ $2 31m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $11 39m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $8 39m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 16¢ $80 46m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $18 47m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $17 51m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 14¢ $16 56m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $18 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 15¢ $22 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 15¢ $37 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $18 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 86¢ $43 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $50 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $47 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 39¢ $55 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $43 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 36¢ $51 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $13 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $30 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $46 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 64¢ $16 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $42 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 64¢ $3 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 62¢ $19 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 38¢ $67 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 87¢ $43 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $73 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +4.6% -5.4% 43% 12% -10.6%
≤30d 65 +4.6% -5.4% 43% 12% -10.6%
≤90d 923 -0.6% -10.0% 70% 35% -10.9%
all 923 -0.6% -10.0% 70% 35% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover49.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 35% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 18% -19.4%
15% -26.5% 13% -27.2%
20% -33.7% 10% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.62 · official $161.33 (match) · 3500 history records