Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:15:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
56 0x56f0…da35 other 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$74 · open +$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%14W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$4,518now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$14
sports 16% −$28
crypto 1% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +3.2% -6.6% 58% 58% -11.5%
≤30d 24 +3.2% -6.6% 58% 58% -11.5%
≤90d 24 +3.2% -6.6% 58% 58% -11.5%
all 24 +3.2% -6.6% 58% 58% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 58% -11.5%
10% -15.6% 50% -20.0%
15% -23.7% 46% -27.7%
20% -31.2% 29% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -60% → late +66% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$160 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$4,518
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$58
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses14 / 10
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions36
Markets (closed)24 / 61
History coverage6d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $460 $457 −$3 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $300 $301 +$1 (+0%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-1%)
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 44¢ $100 $155 +$55 (+55%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 41¢ 49¢ $100 $120 +$20 (+20%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 75¢ 84¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 44¢ 48¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 79¢ 81¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$103 +101%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 +$282 +276%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $202 +$78 +39%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 +$148 +73%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 +$72 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $605 +$240 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$40 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$97 +48%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 16 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $604 −$600 -99%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$243 +238%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $201 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $110 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $251 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 29h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 29h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 29h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 29h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 29h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 29h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 29h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 29h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 29h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 29h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 29h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 29h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 29h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 29h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 29h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 29h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,518.01 · official $4,518.03 (match) · 89 history records