Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:34:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56f1…1659 crypto 225 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$389 (-9%) realized −$389 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate49%110W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day72.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$33
14 days+$33
30 days−$502
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$618
other 2% −$8
sports 1% +$80
culture 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (72 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -3.2% -12.4% 56% 33% +0.5%
≤30d 208 -15.0% -23.1% 50% 37% -22.1%
≤90d 225 -15.9% -23.9% 49% 35% -22.8%
all 225 -15.9% -23.9% 49% 35% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.9% 35% -22.8%
10% ← realistic here -31.2% 27% -30.2%
15% -37.9% 22% -36.9%
20% -43.9% 16% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$389
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses110 / 115
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)225 / 225
History coverage33d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day72.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 225 Trades
no open positions (51 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $87 +$3 +3%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $11 +$10 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $29 −$19 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$12 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $38 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $48 −$35 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Egypt to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 15 $41 +$72 +177%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 28 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 28 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET May 27 $4 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET May 27 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 27 $204 −$204 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 27 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 27 $178 +$27 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 27 $212 −$19 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 27 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 27 $24 −$17 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 27 $28 +$7 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 27 $6 +$5 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 27 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 27 $2 +$3 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 27 $72 −$8 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 27 $9 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $64 −$49 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 27 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 27 $13 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 27 $13 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 26 $32 −$16 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 26 $30 −$4 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 26 $40 −$9 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 26 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 26 $82 +$12 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 26 $51 −$18 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 26 $26 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 26 $20 −$9 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 24 $7 −$5 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 24 $16 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 24 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 24 $8 −$7 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 24 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 24 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10PM ET May 23 $38 −$21 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5PM ET May 23 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $22 5m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $21 6m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 53¢ $24 8m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 50¢ $16 9m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 49¢ $13 13m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 46¢ $15 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $10 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 53m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 37¢ $9 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2429 history records