Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:32:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56f4…7655 other 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$159 (-0%) realized −$162 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate12%14W / 100L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$900per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$833now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$12
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$194
politics 31% −$37
sports 17% +$63
world 4% −$1
economics 2% −$1
crypto 1% −$2
culture 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 46 +1.8% -7.9% 7% 2% -8.5%
all 114 -10.8% -19.3% 12% 8% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 8% -9.7%
10% -27.0% 8% -18.3%
15% -34.1% 7% -26.2%
20% -40.6% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,370) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -22% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$12 · ×6.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$833
Realized−$162
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses14 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)114 / 115
History coverage132d
Avg bet$900
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $830 $833 +$3 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 27 $1,423 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 27 $1,087 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 27 $245 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $315 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $1,237 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $236 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $1,983 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $2,718 −$3 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,997 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $1,521 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $2,523 −$3 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $1,612 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,622 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $1,568 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $1,348 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,213 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 04 $690 +$1 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $834 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,316 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $842 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $1,327 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $1,866 −$3 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $1,670 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? May 20 $801 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $2,115 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,650 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,647 −$2 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 07 $1,539 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $1,518 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,516 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $2,812 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $2,304 −$3 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $1,349 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A May 01 $839 +$744 +89%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 27 $1,001 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $723 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $2,598 −$3 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,647 −$2 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $1,604 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,154 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $1,370 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $428 $0 -0%
Will EdgeX launch a token by September 30, 2026? Apr 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $401 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $412 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 29 $345 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $1,312 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $533 −$1 -0%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars Mar 27 $49 −$49 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $256 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $256 3h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $246 4h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $246 5h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $245 7h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $245 9h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $560 29h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $561 33h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $315 7d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $315 7d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $344 7d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $344 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $235 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $236 8d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $311 9d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $311 9d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $830 10d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,485 13d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,486 13d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,585 14d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,586 14d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,519 14d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,521 14d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,541 14d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,543 14d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,669 15d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,671 15d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $1,609 20d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $1,612 20d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,619 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $832.57 · official $832.57 (match) · 376 history records