Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:25:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56f4…9ec5 sports 69 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (932 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4,796 (-4%) realized −$4,759 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate41%28W / 40L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,592per market
Trades / day931.8pace
Fees−$1,396est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$2,025
other 30% −$5,380
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (932 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -2.2% -11.5% 41% 9% -13.0%
≤30d 68 -2.2% -11.5% 41% 9% -13.0%
≤90d 68 -2.2% -11.5% 41% 9% -13.0%
all 68 -2.2% -11.5% 41% 9% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover931.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 9% -13.0%
10% -20.0% 6% -21.4%
15% ← realistic here -27.7% 4% -29.0%
20% -34.8% 4% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$1,219) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +32% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$404 vs −$366 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$4,759
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses28 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$1,396
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,592
Trades / day931.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 Under 1¢ 0¢ $41 $4 −$37 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $200 −$12 -6%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $200 −$12 -6%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $4,254 +$17 +0%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $594 +$56 +9%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $1 $0 +4%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $3,299 +$19 +1%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $1,219 +$1,314 +108%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $1,168 −$282 -24%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,529 −$496 -32%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $204 −$46 -22%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $194 +$3 +2%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $1,017 −$57 -6%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $3,217 −$3 -0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $3,037 −$598 -20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $11,518 +$3,052 +26%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $7,946 −$665 -8%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $439 −$432 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $103 +$4 +4%
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $648 −$52 -8%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $501 +$4 +1%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $857 +$34 +4%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $7,641 −$65 -1%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $720 +$12 +2%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $109 −$22 -20%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $50 −$29 -59%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $5,007 +$185 +4%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $86 −$12 -14%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 25 $4,864 +$64 +1%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $778 −$151 -20%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $203 −$20 -10%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $921 −$123 -13%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $3,254 −$9 -0%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $200 +$18 +9%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $161 +$15 +9%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $3,488 +$167 +5%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 25 $565 +$725 +128%
Haiti leading at halftime? Jun 25 $356 +$39 +11%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $5,622 +$379 +7%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $183 +$7 +4%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $2,889 −$1,632 -56%
Morocco to win the second half? Jun 24 $800 −$591 -74%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $200 −$11 -5%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $103 −$100 -97%
Brazil to win the second half? Jun 24 $680 −$669 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $1,500 −$190 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 43¢ $188 11m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 43¢ $188 11m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $167 13m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $25 13m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $8 13m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $200 13m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $3,412 17m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 94¢ $500 17m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 96¢ $51 17m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 96¢ $51 17m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 97¢ $52 17m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 96¢ $51 17m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 97¢ $1 17m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 97¢ $49 17m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 97¢ $52 17m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 96¢ $51 17m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 97¢ $62 17m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 1¢ $12 18m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 1¢ $15 18m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 0¢ $15 18m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $1,002 18m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 97¢ $997 18m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 97¢ $992 18m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $200 18m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 97¢ $110 18m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 96¢ $178 18m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $200 18m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 96¢ $22 18m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 97¢ $28 18m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $200 18m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.96 · official $3.96 (match) · 1111 history records