Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:24:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x56fa…df56 world 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$51 (-0%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate23%11W / 36L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$276per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% −$48
other 26% +$2
politics 24% $0
sports 10% −$1
economics 8% +$4
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.1% -10.5% 20% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 33 -0.0% -9.6% 21% 3% -10.3%
≤90d 44 -1.1% -10.6% 25% 2% -10.0%
all 47 -1.1% -10.5% 23% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 2% -9.8%
10% -19.1% 2% -18.5%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses11 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage126d
Avg bet$276
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 80¢ 80¢ $105 $105 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $2 $0 +2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $29 −$2 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $95 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $96 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $55 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $302 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $203 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $108 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $212 +$2 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $98 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $96 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $201 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $365 −$6 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $98 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $202 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $107 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $98 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $104 −$6 -6%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $492 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $104 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $106 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $140 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $106 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $22 −$1 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $213 −$2 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 28 $109 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $109 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $120 −$22 -19%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $136 +$1 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $243 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $150 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $28 −$12 -45%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $162 +$1 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $285 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $26 −$1 -4%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $236 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $1,142 +$1 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $1,005 +$4 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $114 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $186 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $1,032 +$3 +0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 18 $982 $0 +0%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? Feb 18 $197 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Feb 18 $3,151 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $105 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2 34h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $26 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $29 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $81 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $15 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $95 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $96 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $96 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $2 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $10 6d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 6d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 6d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $55 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $29 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $4 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $22 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $107 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $107 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $98 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $98 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $3 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $94 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $97 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.00 · official $104.80 (match) · 193 history records