Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:51:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
56 0x56fc…8e8d politics 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,953 (-4%) realized −$1,953 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate15%8W / 45L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$959per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$6
14 days−$14
30 days−$1,778
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$29
other 43% −$1,742
sports 6% +$35
world 4% −$233
crypto 2% +$5
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -5.8% -14.8% 13% 4% -18.0%
≤90d 53 +3.8% -6.1% 15% 9% -13.0%
all 53 +3.8% -6.1% 15% 9% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 9% -13.0%
10% -15.1% 9% -21.3%
15% -23.3% 9% -28.9%
20% -30.8% 9% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,386) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$47 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,953
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses8 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage79d
Avg bet$959
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $1,103 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $717 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $869 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $783 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,581 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $808 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,586 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $756 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $698 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 04 $311 +$1 +0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $659 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $2,091 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $923 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $723 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $725 −$1 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 25 $34 −$34 -100%
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-05-02? May 25 $1,738 −$1,738 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 25 $25 +$17 +67%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 19 $68 +$63 +93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 02 $852 +$4 +0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $811 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,495 −$2 -0%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 21 $17 +$34 +206%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 21 $22 +$29 +129%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,413 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,038 −$1 -0%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $2 +$3 +172%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,547 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,585 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $3,099 −$3 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $1,532 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $1,386 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $1,487 $0 -0%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 09 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $1,382 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $1,274 −$3 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $1,324 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 06 $1,242 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $1,405 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $1,294 −$1 -0%
Will Zach Johnson win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 05 $1,353 −$3 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 04 $1,377 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $1,381 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $1,387 −$1 -0%
Flames vs. Golden Knights Apr 03 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $355 1h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $356 2h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $609 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $609 3d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $705 5d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $706 5d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $716 5d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $717 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $867 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $869 6d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $782 6d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $783 7d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $868 10d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $870 10d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $827 10d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $829 11d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $807 11d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $808 11d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $883 12d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $885 13d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $747 13d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $748 13d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $755 13d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $756 13d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $698 13d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $698 13d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $658 17d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $659 17d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $614 20d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $615 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 165 history records