Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:25:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5700…a854 sports 762 markets active 0h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,219 (-7%) realized −$1,219 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%294W / 467L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$36
14 days+$36
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$599
other 29% −$658
crypto 1% +$40
world 0% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +65.0% +49.3% 100% 100% +49.3%
≤30d 1 +65.0% +49.3% 100% 100% +49.3%
≤90d 51 -7.0% -15.9% 41% 41% -13.3%
all 761 -8.2% -16.9% 39% 38% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 38% -16.2%
10% -24.9% 37% -24.3%
15% -32.1% 37% -31.6%
20% -38.8% 35% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$17 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$1,219
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses294 / 467
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)761 / 762
History coverage155d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 761 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $55 +$36 +65%
Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Borges (+1.5) Apr 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Hornets vs. Timberwolves Apr 05 $50 −$49 -98%
Wizards vs. Nets Apr 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Raptors vs. Celtics Apr 05 $11 −$11 -98%
Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Kouame (+1.5) Apr 05 $30 +$20 +67%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Tommy Pa Apr 05 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $19 −$19 -98%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $10 +$29 +289%
Set Handicap: Griekspoor (-1.5) vs Monfils (+1.5) Apr 05 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Marton Fucsovics vs Alejandro Tabilo Apr 05 $14 −$14 -98%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Robe Apr 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters, Qualification: Ethan Quinn vs Francisco Com Apr 05 $25 −$25 -98%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Apr 04 $15 +$20 +135%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-1.5) Apr 04 $20 +$32 +158%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Tomas Etcheverry vs Tommy Paul Apr 03 $11 −$11 -98%
Knicks vs. Hornets Apr 03 $17 −$17 -100%
Saski Baskonia vs. Real Madrid Apr 03 $10 +$22 +223%
Timberwolves vs. 76ers Apr 03 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $20 −$2 -8%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Tirante (+1.5) Apr 03 $26 −$26 -98%
Credit One Charleston Open: Jessica Pegula vs Diana Shnaider Apr 03 $13 +$13 +103%
Spurs vs. Clippers Apr 03 $20 +$23 +114%
Set Handicap: Tien (-1.5) vs Basavareddy (+1.5) Apr 02 $31 −$31 -99%
KK Crvena Zvezda vs. Partizan Apr 02 $35 +$47 +133%
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. Anadolu Efes Apr 02 $15 −$15 -98%
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Barcelona Apr 02 $10 −$10 -98%
BC Dubai vs. Monaco Apr 02 $20 −$20 -98%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-04-02? Apr 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Hawks vs. Magic Apr 02 $20 +$15 +73%
Pacers vs. Bulls Apr 02 $15 +$23 +152%
Will FC Andorra win on 2026-04-01? Apr 01 $16 +$15 +92%
Will Burgos CF win on 2026-04-01? Apr 01 $19 −$19 -100%
Suns vs. Magic Apr 01 $19 +$16 +83%
Virtus Bologna vs. Paris Basketball Mar 31 $17 +$22 +128%
Set Handicap: Baez (-1.5) vs Gaubas (+1.5) Mar 31 $25 +$18 +71%
Clippers vs. Bucks Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. BC Dubai Mar 26 $59 +$74 +124%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Nemiga (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup Mar 26 $80 −$51 -64%
Miami Open: Coco Gauff vs Karolina Muchova Mar 26 $50 +$47 +94%
Alicante: Alejo Sanchez Quilez vs Pablo Carreno Busta Mar 26 $40 +$24 +61%
Rockets vs. Timberwolves Mar 26 $20 +$23 +112%
Thunder vs. Celtics Mar 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-03-25? Mar 25 $20 −$2 -12%
Hawks vs. Pistons Mar 25 $29 −$29 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-25? Mar 25 $15 +$10 +64%
Saski Baskonia vs. KK Crvena Zvezda Mar 25 $39 +$46 +119%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 1WIN (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup # Mar 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 15m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 97¢ $90 16m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $55 1h
Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Borges (+1.5) BUY Rublev 57¢ $20 75d
Hornets vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 38¢ $50 75d
Wizards vs. Nets BUY Wizards 40¢ $20 75d
Raptors vs. Celtics BUY Raptors 21¢ $11 75d
Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Kouame (+1.5) SELL Humbert 100¢ $50 75d
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Tommy Pa BUY Roman Andres Burruchaga 34¢ $50 75d
Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Kouame (+1.5) BUY Humbert 59¢ $30 76d
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-05? BUY Yes 35¢ $19 76d
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-05? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 76d
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-05? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 76d
Set Handicap: Griekspoor (-1.5) vs Monfils (+1.5) BUY Griekspoor 43¢ $30 76d
Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-04-05? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 76d
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Marton Fucsovics vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Marton Fucsovics 38¢ $14 76d
Set Handicap: Griekspoor (-1.5) vs Monfils (+1.5) BUY Griekspoor 42¢ $16 76d
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Robe BUY Roberto Bautista Agut 44¢ $20 76d
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters, Qualification: Ethan Quinn vs Francisco Com BUY Ethan Quinn 48¢ $25 76d
Spurs vs. Nuggets SELL Nuggets 98¢ $35 76d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 76d
Spurs vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 41¢ $15 76d
Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-1.5) BUY Real Sociedad de Fútbol 38¢ $20 77d
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Tomas Etcheverry vs Tommy Paul BUY Tomas Etcheverry 35¢ $11 77d
Saski Baskonia vs. Real Madrid SELL Saski Baskonia 99¢ $32 77d
Timberwolves vs. 76ers BUY Timberwolves 39¢ $20 77d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-03? SELL Yes 53¢ $18 77d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-03? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 77d
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Tirante (+1.5) BUY Shelton 45¢ $10 78d
Saski Baskonia vs. Real Madrid BUY Saski Baskonia 30¢ $10 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.63 · official $49.63 (match) · 1656 history records