Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:33:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

57
0x5701…6d2a
politics · 139 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$135 -32%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$112 · open −$32
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$28
Realized−$112
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses26 / 97
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions16
Markets (closed)123 / 139
History coverage302d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 16 History 123 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 54¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $12 $5 −$7 (-60%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Epstein client list released by June 30? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-73%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.5–0.6%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+83%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-71%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-77%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.5–0.6%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? No 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump Insult Xi this week? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? No 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 +$2 +162%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $1 +$3 +284%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 -86%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -86%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 Jun 14 $6 −$5 -83%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$4 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump Insult Xi this week? May 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump Leave China on May 15? May 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit? May 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Derrick White: Points O/U 14.5 Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 216.5 Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
USD.AI FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5 Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 22? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay Rays Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump post "POTUS" this week on Truth Social? Apr 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
USD.AI FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 22 $1 +$3 +303%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Ivory vs WinteR SquadronS - Game 1 Winner Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5 Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 21? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 44% −$51
world 22% −$71
other 18% −$29
sports 9% +$29
crypto 5% −$17
economics 1% −$4
weather 0% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $7 53m
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $3 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Houston Astros 87¢ $4 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 SELL Over 1¢ $0 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 SELL Over 0¢ $0 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 SELL Over 3¢ $0 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 SELL Over 2¢ $1 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 BUY Over 11¢ $5 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 BUY Over 12¢ $1 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 BUY Over 20¢ $1 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 BUY Over 7¢ $0 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 BUY Over 8¢ $1 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 BUY Over 6¢ $1 1h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $1 3h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 22¢ $1 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 12h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -9.9% -18.5% 31% 31% -39.6%
≤30d 23 -49.1% -53.9% 17% 17% -55.0%
≤90d 106 -38.2% -44.1% 13% 12% -72.6%
all 123 -15.8% -23.9% 21% 19% -43.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 19% -43.4%
10% -31.1% 17% -48.8%
15% -37.8% 16% -53.8%
20% -43.9% 15% -58.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.18 · official $28.18 (match) · 281 history records