Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:59:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

57 0x5702…c5a7 other 28 markets active 3h ago coverage 21d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$2,078 (-21%) realized −$1,556 · open −$522

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip

Net edge-47%after slip

Net WR14%break-even

Win rate14%3W / 19L

Whale WR33%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$354per market

Trades / day5.1pace

Kalshi-fit4%portable

Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 21d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +14%

net ROI/market (all)-44.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	-29.4%	-36.1%	16%	16%	-18.2%
≤30d	22	-39.0%	-44.8%	14%	14%	-28.4%
≤90d	22	-39.0%	-44.8%	14%	14%	-28.4%
all	22	-39.0%	-44.8%	14%	14%	-28.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-44.8%	14%	-28.4%
10%	-50.1%	14%	-35.2%
15%	-54.9%	9%	-41.5%
20%	-59.4%	9%	-47.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 45% · top 2 86% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -39% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 33% (≥$566) big bets weaker

Persistence

early -18% → late -60% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$403 vs −$165 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.39 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage

Net worth$121

Realized−$1,556

Unrealized−$522

Win rate (resolved)14%

Wins / losses3 / 19

Whale WR (big bets)33%

Open positions6

Markets (closed)22 / 28

History coverage21d

Avg bet$354

Trades / day5.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit4%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$123	$21	−$103 (-83%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$82	$21	−$62 (-75%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$82	$21	−$62 (-75%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$163	$21	−$143 (-87%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$82	$21	−$62 (-75%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$111	$18	−$92 (-83%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 27	$85	−$36	-43%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 27	$127	−$87	-69%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 27	$254	−$214	-84%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 27	$85	−$45	-53%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 27	$211	−$172	-81%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 27	$127	−$87	-69%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 27	$169	−$90	-53%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 27	$211	−$132	-62%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 27	$296	−$111	-37%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 27	$423	−$264	-62%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 27	$381	−$181	-48%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 27	$846	+$545	+64%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 27	$677	+$165	+24%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 27	$549	−$190	-35%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 27	$888	−$52	-6%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 27	$550	−$36	-7%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 27	$761	−$262	-34%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 27	$510	+$501	+98%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 27	$924	−$30	-3%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 08	$580	−$566	-98%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 06	$465	−$452	-97%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 06	$127	−$123	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	0¢	$36	3h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	0¢	$40	3h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	0¢	$40	3h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	0¢	$40	3h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	0¢	$40	3h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	0¢	$40	3h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	0¢	$80	3h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	0¢	$80	3h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	0¢	$143	3h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	0¢	$159	3h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	0¢	$199	3h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$215	3h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$361	3h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$359	3h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$403	3h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$429	3h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$499	3h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$534	3h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$654	3h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	4¢	$119	32h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	5¢	$121	32h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	4¢	$154	6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	4¢	$144	6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	3¢	$135	6d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	4¢	$135	7d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	4¢	$108	7d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	3¢	$105	7d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	3¢	$99	7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$42	10d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	7¢	$154	11d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.09 · official $121.09 (match) · 132 history records