Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:01:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5703…d653 crypto 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (217 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,144 (-15%) realized −$990 · open −$154
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate56%20W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day216.6pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$605
other 23% −$951
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (217 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -6.0% -15.0% 56% 36% -27.0%
≤30d 36 -6.0% -15.0% 56% 36% -27.0%
≤90d 36 -6.0% -15.0% 56% 36% -27.0%
all 36 -6.0% -15.0% 56% 36% -27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover216.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 36% -27.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 31% -34.0%
15% -30.6% 19% -40.4%
20% -37.4% 17% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$166 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$990
Unrealized−$154
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses20 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage2d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day216.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $155 $1 −$154 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $122 +$36 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $91 +$29 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $697 −$697 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 19 $481 +$215 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $308 +$50 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $321 +$107 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $161 +$172 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $63 +$100 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $41 +$21 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $458 −$458 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $375 +$106 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 19 $196 +$178 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $392 −$197 -50%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 +$122 +596%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $122 −$120 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $870 −$870 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $377 +$35 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $321 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $127 +$14 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $133 −$71 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $451 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $91 −$91 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $601 +$37 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $100 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 52m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.31 · official $51.15 · 504 history records