Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:55:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5705…662c other 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$28 (+0%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%12W / 114L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$321per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$21
politics 39% −$312
sports 4% +$66
crypto 2% −$2
tech 2% −$1
world 1% −$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 113 +0.6% -9.0% 8% 4% -10.2%
all 126 +2.0% -7.7% 10% 6% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 6% -10.1%
10% -16.5% 6% -18.7%
15% -24.6% 4% -26.6%
20% -32.0% 3% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$4 · ×3.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses12 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)126 / 126
History coverage116d
Avg bet$321
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 126 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $369 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $395 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $36 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $355 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $53 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $48 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $656 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $588 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $681 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 25 $244 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 20 $269 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $258 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $566 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $316 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $315 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $250 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $305 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $278 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $288 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $256 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $630 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $539 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 06 $56 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $211 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $267 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $216 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $577 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $247 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $910 −$1 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $228 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $242 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $294 −$294 -100%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $276 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $255 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $334 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $586 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $286 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $587 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 22 $317 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $325 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $339 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $343 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $540 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $53 1h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $53 33h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 38h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 5d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 9d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 10d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $38 10d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $38 12d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 12d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 14d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 14d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 14d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $326 21d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $326 23d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $257 23d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $257 24d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $334 24d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $334 25d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $233 25d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $233 26d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $244 26d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $244 26d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $245 27d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $245 28d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $311 28d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $311 30d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $269 31d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $269 31d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $258 31d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $258 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 385 history records