Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:25:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5706…bd5a sports 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$22 (-1%) realized −$15 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%5W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Fees−$90est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$293now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$1
other 11% −$47
crypto 3% −$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-43.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -38.0% -43.9% 31% 31% -14.0%
≤30d 16 -38.0% -43.9% 31% 31% -14.0%
≤90d 16 -38.0% -43.9% 31% 31% -14.0%
all 16 -38.0% -43.9% 31% 31% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.9% 31% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -49.3% 31% -22.2%
15% -54.2% 25% -29.8%
20% -58.7% 19% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$215 vs −$111 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$293
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses5 / 11
Est. fees paid−$90
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $300 $293 −$7 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $550 +$195 +36%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $362 +$83 +23%
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $134 −$130 -97%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $167 −$162 -98%
Spread: Canada (-4.5) Jun 18 $98 −$32 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$104 -100%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $276 +$139 +50%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 18 $97 −$97 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $190 −$190 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $205 −$205 -100%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola Jun 18 $115 −$115 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $201 +$201 +100%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 18 $212 +$458 +216%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Korea Republic leading at halftime? BUY Yes 21¢ $307 16m
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 54¢ $399 22m
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 32¢ $245 59m
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL New York Mets 56¢ $345 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 48¢ $305 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 11¢ $66 2h
Spread: Canada (-4.5) SELL Canada 5¢ $66 2h
Spread: Canada (-4.5) BUY Canada 7¢ $98 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 3h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 15¢ $100 3h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 13¢ $103 3h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 33¢ $40 4h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Cleveland Guardians 79¢ $444 4h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 45¢ $259 6h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 22¢ $39 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 4¢ $103 7h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 21¢ $402 8h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $1 9h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $204 9h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 15¢ $97 9h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $201 10h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 6¢ $113 10h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 7¢ $2 10h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 26¢ $190 10h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 28¢ $112 11h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ethan Quinn 68¢ $414 11h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 26¢ $164 11h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Kyrian Jacquet 31¢ $212 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $292.86 · official $292.86 (match) · 41 history records