Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:38:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
57 0x5708…6575 other 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 630d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$63 (-0%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate83%87W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$599per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 80% −$53
other 17% +$6
crypto 1% +$5
economics 1% +$4
tech 0% +$2
sports 0% −$28
world 0% +$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 105 -3.6% -12.7% 83% 20% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 20% -9.6%
10% -21.1% 16% -18.3%
15% -28.7% 10% -26.2%
20% -35.7% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$11 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

630d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses87 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)105 / 106
History coverage630d
Avg bet$599
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? No 95¢ 95¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 26 $99 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in April? May 27 $99 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Apr 22 $98 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in February? Mar 05 $99 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.40 in January? Feb 12 $23 $0 +1%
Will Tesla dip to $338 in January? Feb 12 $35 +$1 +4%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in January? Feb 12 $40 $0 +0%
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee in 2025? Jan 16 $11 $0 +3%
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31? Jan 16 $18 $0 +2%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by December 31? Jan 16 $32 $0 +1%
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea in 2025? Jan 16 $35 $0 +1%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2025-11-25? Dec 09 $9 +$4 +47%
Will Leicester City FC win on 2025-11-25? Dec 09 $13 +$5 +39%
Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-11-25? Dec 09 $14 +$4 +25%
Will Hull City AFC vs. Ipswich Town FC end in a draw? Dec 09 $14 +$5 +33%
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2025-11-25? Dec 09 $15 +$13 +88%
Will Southampton FC win on 2025-11-25? Nov 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Southampton FC vs. Leicester City FC end in a draw? Nov 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Coventry City FC win on 2025-11-25? Nov 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Middlesbrough FC vs. Coventry City FC end in a draw? Nov 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Birmingham City FC vs. Millwall FC end in a draw? Nov 21 $10 +$4 +37%
Will Derby County FC vs. Hull City AFC end in a draw? Nov 21 $10 +$4 +39%
Will Charlton Athletic FC vs. West Bromwich Albion FC end in a draw? Nov 21 $10 +$4 +41%
Will West Bromwich Albion FC win on 2025-11-04? Nov 21 $10 +$4 +45%
Will Bristol City FC win on 2025-11-04? Nov 21 $10 +$9 +89%
Will Charlton Athletic FC win on 2025-11-04? Nov 21 $10 +$16 +156%
Will Blackburn Rovers FC win on 2025-11-04? Nov 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Derby County FC win on 2025-11-04? Nov 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Birmingham City FC win on 2025-11-04? Nov 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-11-04? Nov 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bristol City FC vs. Blackburn Rovers FC end in a draw? Nov 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Millwall FC win on 2025-11-04? Nov 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Samsunspor vs. Çaykur Rizespor end in a draw? Nov 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Samsunspor win on 2025-10-27? Nov 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Gaziantep FK win on 2025-10-27? Nov 02 $11 $0 +3%
Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2025-10-27? Nov 02 $11 $0 +4%
Will Gaziantep FK vs. Fenerbahçe SK end in a draw? Nov 02 $11 +$2 +15%
Will Kocaelispor win on 2025-10-31? Nov 02 $11 +$3 +24%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-10-27? Nov 02 $11 +$3 +27%
Will Rams Başakşehir FK vs. Kocaelispor end in a draw? Nov 02 $11 +$3 +32%
Will Rams Başakşehir FK win on 2025-10-31? Nov 02 $20 +$15 +75%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 02 $100 +$1 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Nov 02 $100 +$1 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 02 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the October meeting? Nov 02 $142 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Oct 27 $132 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 05 $130 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on July Aug 12 $130 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in June? Jul 11 $119 +$1 +1%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2025? Jun 03 $129 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 95¢ $100 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $99 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in April? BUY No 100¢ $99 65d
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY No 100¢ $98 113d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $99 134d
Will Tesla dip to $338 in January? BUY No 96¢ $35 161d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in January? BUY No 100¢ $40 161d
Will XRP dip to $1.40 in January? BUY No 99¢ $23 161d
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $32 200d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $35 200d
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee in 2025? BUY No 97¢ $11 200d
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31? BUY No 98¢ $18 200d
Will Southampton FC win on 2025-11-25? BUY No 62¢ $11 217d
Will Leicester City FC win on 2025-11-25? BUY No 72¢ $13 217d
Will Southampton FC vs. Leicester City FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $13 217d
Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-11-25? BUY No 80¢ $14 217d
Will Hull City AFC vs. Ipswich Town FC end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $14 217d
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2025-11-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 217d
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2025-11-25? BUY No 68¢ $9 217d
Will Coventry City FC win on 2025-11-25? BUY No 65¢ $9 217d
Will Middlesbrough FC vs. Coventry City FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 217d
Will Derby County FC win on 2025-11-04? BUY No 59¢ $10 236d
Will Derby County FC vs. Hull City AFC end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $10 236d
Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-11-04? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 236d
Will West Bromwich Albion FC win on 2025-11-04? BUY No 69¢ $10 236d
Will Charlton Athletic FC vs. West Bromwich Albion FC end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $10 236d
Will Charlton Athletic FC win on 2025-11-04? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 236d
Will Birmingham City FC win on 2025-11-04? BUY No 52¢ $10 236d
Will Birmingham City FC vs. Millwall FC end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $10 236d
Will Bristol City FC win on 2025-11-04? BUY No 53¢ $10 236d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.24 · official $99.24 (match) · 238 history records