Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:13:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
57 0x570b…3bc3 crypto 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate75%38W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$6
crypto 10% +$2
sports 2% $0
politics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 51 +0.2% -9.3% 75% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses38 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage527d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $58 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? May 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 05 $51 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $20 in March? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in March? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? Apr 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $56 +$1 +1%
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? Feb 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1200 in January? Feb 02 $48 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? Jan 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in December? Jan 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? Dec 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Nov 04 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $22 $0 +2%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? Nov 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? Oct 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September? Oct 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? Sep 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? Sep 02 $29 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? Aug 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? Aug 04 $45 $0 +0%
Will US leave NATO by June 30? Jul 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jul 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 11 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? Jun 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2025? Apr 27 $6,005 −$6 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 20 $41 $0 -1%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect Apr 18 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2025 World Series? Apr 12 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Greens win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentar Apr 11 $27 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in March? Apr 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 02 $7 $0 +2%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 05 $12 $0 +0%
Solana above $175 on February 28? Mar 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 03 $10 $0 +3%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.15 by February 28 2025? Mar 03 $16 $0 +1%
Will Ja Morant lead the NBA in Assists? Feb 22 $15 $0 -0%
Will another team win the Bundesliga? Feb 22 $59 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Feb 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will BSW win the second most seats in the next German election? Jan 28 $13 $0 -0%
Will the CDU/CSU win less than 20% of the vote in the German election? Jan 27 $15 $0 -0%
Will Torino win the Serie A? Jan 27 $21 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $68 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $9 29d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $58 31d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $10 61d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $51 63d
Will Chainlink reach $20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $13 92d
Will XRP reach $2.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $14 92d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $37 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $26 121d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 98¢ $30 122d
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? BUY No 100¢ $10 149d
Will BNB reach $1200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $48 151d
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 181d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in December? BUY No 100¢ $28 183d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $50 212d
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? BUY No 100¢ $10 241d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 98¢ $22 241d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? BUY No 100¢ $28 243d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? BUY No 100¢ $20 272d
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September? BUY No 100¢ $30 273d
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $15 301d
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? BUY No 100¢ $16 301d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? BUY No 100¢ $29 303d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $7 332d
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? BUY No 100¢ $12 333d
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? BUY No 100¢ $45 335d
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $32 363d
Will US leave NATO by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $19 366d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 393d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 394d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.30 · official $68.30 (match) · 111 history records