Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:22:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
57 0x5712…f144 sports 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$74 (-4%) realized −$23 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate70%14W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -4.2% -13.3% 70% 65% -8.9%
≤30d 20 -4.2% -13.3% 70% 65% -8.9%
≤90d 20 -4.2% -13.3% 70% 65% -8.9%
all 20 -4.2% -13.3% 70% 65% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 65% -8.9%
10% -21.6% 60% -17.6%
15% -29.2% 10% -25.5%
20% -36.1% 5% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$50 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$176
Realized−$23
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses14 / 6
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage5d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 65¢ 50¢ $227 $176 −$51 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $36 −$2 -5%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $102 +$31 +30%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $83 +$20 +24%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $143 +$39 +27%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $113 +$31 +27%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $81 +$33 +40%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $51 −$51 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $162 −$161 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $131 +$32 +24%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $114 +$18 +16%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $107 +$7 +6%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $82 +$25 +31%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $65 +$18 +28%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $52 +$13 +26%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $34 +$19 +55%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $26 +$8 +32%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $14 −$14 -98%
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $64 −$51 -80%
Set 1 Winner: Parry vs Ito Jun 20 $48 +$16 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $229 23m
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 64¢ $34 24m
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $36 46m
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $134 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 76¢ $102 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $103 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 79¢ $83 2h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $182 2h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $143 4h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $144 4h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 78¢ $113 5h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $114 5h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $81 7h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $51 23h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $162 30h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $163 30h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 80¢ $131 32h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $131 32h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $114 38h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $107 47h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $108 47h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 76¢ $82 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $83 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $65 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $65 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 79¢ $52 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $52 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $34 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $34 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $26 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.35 · official $176.35 (match) · 37 history records