Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:17:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5715…82ca crypto 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$36 (+10%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$31
other 29% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-36.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -29.2% -36.0% 56% 25% -5.3%
≤30d 16 -29.2% -36.0% 56% 25% -5.3%
≤90d 16 -29.2% -36.0% 56% 25% -5.3%
all 16 -29.2% -36.0% 56% 25% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.0% 25% -5.3%
10% -42.1% 25% -14.3%
15% -47.7% 25% -22.6%
20% -52.8% 6% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage2d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $91 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 21 $111 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +38%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $26 +$13 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $77 +$35 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 19 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $91 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $91 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $26 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $113 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $77 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $6 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $2 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.83 · official $97.83 (match) · 29 history records