Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:26:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

57
0x5715…1616
world · 242 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$32,298 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$36,621 · open −$813
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11,594
Realized+$36,621
Unrealized−$813
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses81 / 154
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$1,351
Open positions6
Markets (closed)235 / 242
History coverage74d
Avg bet$1,158
Trades / day45.5
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 6 History 235 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9,060
7 days−$3,398
14 days−$6,163
30 days−$22,108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $8,212 $8,174 −$38 (-0%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 15¢ 28¢ $890 $1,657 +$767 (+86%)
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Yes 22¢ 10¢ $2,407 $1,056 −$1,351 (-56%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $590 $536 −$54 (-9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $220 $107 −$113 (-51%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $88 $65 −$23 (-27%)
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5) Club Atlético de Madrid 7¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $212 $0 −$212 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) Spurs 13¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $1,295 $0 −$1,295 (-100%)
Valencia vs. Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 27¢ 0¢ $430 $0 −$430 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $115 $0 −$115 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) Thunder 26¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 3 Arsenal FC? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $390 $0 −$390 (-100%)
Will UK strike Iran by April 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 17? No 42¢ 0¢ $3,897 $0 −$3,897 (-100%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Spurs 46¢ 0¢ $170 $0 −$170 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $120 −$67 -56%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $726 −$483 -66%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 11 $292 −$210 -72%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 11 $4,185 −$500 -12%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $2,465 −$363 -15%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $196 −$48 -24%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $800 +$828 +104%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $26,305 −$4,135 -16%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 11 $287 −$287 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $2,172 −$1,835 -84%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 11 $1,729 −$527 -30%
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? Jun 11 $340 −$340 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $700 +$38 +6%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5,965 −$451 -8%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $173 −$170 -98%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $661 −$511 -77%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $463 −$53 -12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 09 $201 −$28 -14%
Spread: Knicks (-22.5) Jun 09 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) Jun 09 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 09 $204 −$200 -98%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Jun 08 $59 −$54 -92%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $2,603 +$89 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 07 $26 +$34 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 07 $37 −$35 -94%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $4,717 +$2,863 +61%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $3,895 +$3,804 +98%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $450 +$219 +49%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 06 $257 −$257 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 06 $61 −$60 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $608 −$600 -99%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $941 −$304 -32%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $2,600 +$2,693 +104%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 30 $5,722 −$1,356 -24%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 3 Arsenal FC? May 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,319 −$1,295 -98%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 29 $5,521 −$2,501 -45%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 28 $400 −$124 -31%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 27 $400 −$400 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $18,264 +$2 +0%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 26 $675 +$965 +143%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 26 $3,140 +$315 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $200 −$20 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 26 $3,115 −$1,664 -53%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 25 $810 +$57 +7%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $880 +$242 +28%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 25 $50 +$56 +112%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 25 $240 −$240 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $2,494 +$65 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May? May 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 79% +$6,883
sports 13% +$31,573
other 5% −$3,173
finance 3% +$41
crypto 0% −$480
politics 0% +$965
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $613 17m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $100 23m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $40 32m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $200 32m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $300 32m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $2,999 33m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $4,419 34m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 36m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 38m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 40m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 40m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 42m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 42m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $8,904 43m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $53 3h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06- BUY 4¢ $16 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 17h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $120 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 18h
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? SELL No 1¢ $83 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 26¢ $150 18h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $178 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 25¢ $25 18h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $40 18h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $50 19h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $200 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $200 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $300 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $400 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $30 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -36.4% -42.5% 23% 16% -14.6%
≤30d 88 -29.0% -35.8% 25% 19% -24.5%
≤90d 235 +38.0% +24.9% 34% 31% +8.2%
all 235 +38.0% +24.9% 34% 31% +8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover45.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +24.9% 31% +8.2%
10% +12.9% 30% -2.2%
15% ← realistic here +2.0% 28% -11.6%
20% -8.0% 26% -20.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,594.44 · official $11,594.44 (match) · 3500 history records