Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:29:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

57 0x5718…d232 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$7 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip

Net edge-29%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate40%2W / 3L

Drawdown9%max

Avg bet$206per market

Trades / day9.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$397now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)-23.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-15.5%	-23.5%	40%	40%	+7.0%
≤30d	5	-15.5%	-23.5%	40%	40%	+7.0%
≤90d	5	-15.5%	-23.5%	40%	40%	+7.0%
all	5	-15.5%	-23.5%	40%	40%	+7.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-23.5%	40%	+7.0%
10%	-30.9%	20%	-3.2%
15%	-37.5%	0%	-12.6%
20%	-43.7%	0%	-21.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 92% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +18% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -15% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$83 vs −$4 · ×18.39 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×12.26 per $1 lost it wins $12.26

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$397

Realized+$7

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses2 / 3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$206

Trades / day9.0

Drawdown9%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	65¢	64¢	$400	$397	−$3 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$671	+$152	+23%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 22	$41	−$3	-8%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$10	−$10	-96%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$101	+$13	+12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$5	$0	-5%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	65¢	$408	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	94¢	$405	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	94¢	$415	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	92¢	$418	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	66¢	$153	1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	39¢	$38	7h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	3¢	$10	7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	97¢	$114	7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	43¢	$103	7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	84¢	$101	7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	88¢	$5	35h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	40¢	$41	35h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	90¢	$5	35h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $396.92 · official $396.92 (match) · 13 history records