Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:08:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x571a…1b17 crypto 16 markets active 5h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,020 (-26%) realized −$941 · open −$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$247per market
Trades / day19.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1,163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$26
crypto 43% −$153
tech 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -19.7% -27.3% 0% 0% -28.0%
≤30d 2 -19.7% -27.3% 0% 0% -28.0%
≤90d 2 -19.7% -27.3% 0% 0% -28.0%
all 2 -19.7% -27.3% 0% 0% -28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.3% 0% -28.0%
10% -34.3% 0% -34.9%
15% -40.6% 0% -41.2%
20% -46.5% 0% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$51 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$1,163
Realized−$941
Unrealized−$79
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions14
Markets (closed)2 / 16
History coverage5d
Avg bet$247
Trades / day19.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 29-July 5? No 90¢ 94¢ $194 $202 +$8 (+4%)
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 June 29-July 5? No 72¢ 49¢ $286 $196 −$90 (-31%)
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 June 29-July 5? No 45¢ 36¢ $225 $176 −$49 (-22%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 29-July 5? No 70¢ 82¢ $140 $165 +$25 (+18%)
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 June 29-July 5? No 77¢ 73¢ $154 $146 −$8 (-5%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 29-July 5? No 52¢ 68¢ $104 $137 +$33 (+32%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 29-July 5? No 41¢ 56¢ $82 $111 +$29 (+35%)
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $174 in June? Yes 11¢ 2¢ $32 $8 −$24 (-76%)
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 Yes 38¢ 30¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-21%)
Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026 No 92¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 No 93¢ 89¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 No 77¢ 74¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $172 in June? No 86¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $172 in June? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-68%)
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026 No 94¢ 92¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? Jun 29 $224 −$27 -12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? Jun 29 $272 −$75 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 35¢ $4 4h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $174 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 5h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $172 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 29-July 5? BUY No 87¢ $7 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 29-July 5? BUY No 90¢ $4 7h
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 June 29-July 5? BUY No 68¢ $139 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 29-July 5? BUY No 90¢ $177 7h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 June 29-July 5? BUY No 48¢ $3 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 June 29-July 5? BUY No 44¢ $91 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 June 29-July 5? BUY No 77¢ $156 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 June 29-July 5? BUY No 46¢ $6 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 June 29-July 5? BUY No 46¢ $133 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 29-July 5? BUY No 41¢ $85 8h
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 June 29-July 5? BUY No 75¢ $153 8h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 29-July 5? BUY No 52¢ $2 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 29-July 5? BUY No 70¢ $143 8h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 29-July 5? BUY No 52¢ $105 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 29-July 5? BUY No 87¢ $7 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 21h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $174 in June? BUY No 100¢ $5 27h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $174 in June? BUY No 98¢ $202 27h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $174 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $54 27h
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY No 92¢ $5 30h
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY No 82¢ $4 30h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? BUY No 100¢ $197 30h
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 42¢ $5 30h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $172 in June? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 36h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $172 in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 36h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 36h
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY No 94¢ $29 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,162.54 · official $1,164.65 (match) · 101 history records