Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:45:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
57 0x571a…1b2c sports 67 markets active 6h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$23 (-3%) realized −$14 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate67%42W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$28
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$13
other 3% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +15.3% +4.4% 68% 67% -12.6%
≤30d 63 +14.0% +3.2% 67% 65% -12.3%
≤90d 63 +14.0% +3.2% 67% 65% -12.3%
all 63 +14.0% +3.2% 67% 65% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.2% 65% -12.3%
10% -6.7% 52% -20.7%
15% -15.7% 38% -28.3%
20% -24.0% 17% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$14
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses42 / 21
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions4
Markets (closed)63 / 67
History coverage7d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $12 $7 −$5 (-40%)
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Playoffs Ground Zero 74¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+35%)
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Clutchain 68¢ 72¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Playoffs MARKandLARRY 62¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -99%
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 15 $5 −$1 -18%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: Nande+4 vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 15 $8 −$2 -25%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $5 +$3 +67%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $5 +$3 +67%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $3 +$2 +65%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$10 +510%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs G-Time (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 14 $5 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Arch (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $5 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $44 +$19 +45%
Dota 2: Sadboys vs Selva Esports (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 13 $10 −$3 -28%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite (BO3) - The International North America Ope Jun 13 $110 −$108 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs Nexus (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 13 $10 +$2 +20%
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Modo Serio (BO3) - The International South America O Jun 13 $10 +$2 +20%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 12 $10 +$3 +31%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $30 +$6 +20%
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $11 +$3 +26%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs STATE (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A Jun 12 $10 +$2 +21%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs Invicta (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A Jun 12 $10 +$4 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $25 +$11 +44%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 12 $20 +$10 +52%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Jun 12 $10 +$2 +23%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $20 +$9 +44%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $20 −$19 -99%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ding Cuts vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff Jun 12 $40 +$26 +64%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $20 +$4 +20%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 11 $10 +$3 +34%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $10 +$4 +36%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $5 +$1 +13%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $10 +$3 +26%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 +$2 +20%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 11 $40 +$18 +44%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $10 +$6 +57%
Counter-Strike: Wingman vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 10 $19 +$4 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 68¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Ground Zero 74¢ $4 10h
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 62¢ $6 10h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close BUY Game Master 74¢ $5 10h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 12h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 13h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Heretics 21¢ $2 14h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 14h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY Lindorfitos 59¢ $5 18h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 73¢ $5 20h
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Dandelions 60¢ $5 20h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 59¢ $5 34h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 12¢ $1 37h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 30¢ $5 38h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 18¢ $2 38h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 16¢ $2 41h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY FUT Esports 60¢ $3 41h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $5 42h
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Arch (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs BUY OLDBOYS- 74¢ $5 42h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs G-Time (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY VP.Prodigy 52¢ $5 42h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie BUY Nuclear TigeRES 71¢ $5 42h
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY Alliance 82¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY Virtus.pro 62¢ $5 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 70¢ $5 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 72¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 12¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 53¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 64¢ $11 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 48¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 66¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.21 · official $14.21 (match) · 153 history records