Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:59:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
57 0x571e…ae3b sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$133 (-4%) realized −$133 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$132
7 days−$132
14 days−$370
30 days−$283
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$283
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -34.5% -40.7% 50% 50% -48.1%
≤30d 15 -0.7% -10.2% 53% 53% -17.9%
≤90d 15 -0.7% -10.2% 53% 53% -17.9%
all 15 -0.7% -10.2% 53% 53% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 53% -17.9%
10% -18.8% 53% -25.8%
15% -26.6% 40% -32.9%
20% -33.8% 33% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$135 vs −$194 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$133
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage17d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $178 −$174 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 21 $136 +$42 +31%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $103 −$102 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $138 −$136 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $399 −$393 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $253 +$146 +58%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $442 −$438 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $133 +$112 +84%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P Jun 06 $448 +$186 +42%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig Jun 06 $344 +$104 +30%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $103 +$203 +197%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 06 $207 +$171 +82%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 04 $69 −$67 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $69 +$113 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 39¢ $178 1h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, SELL Navajo Stirling 99¢ $178 1h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Navajo Stirling 75¢ $136 1h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 39¢ $103 12d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 47¢ $102 13d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 36¢ $37 13d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 52¢ $399 14d
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai SELL Brendan Allen 99¢ $399 14d
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Farés Ziam 74¢ $442 14d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main SELL Bryce Mitchell 99¢ $244 14d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main BUY Bryce Mitchell 53¢ $133 14d
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai BUY Brendan Allen 62¢ $253 14d
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) BUY John Yannis 23¢ $51 14d
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P BUY Jeisla Chaves 70¢ $448 14d
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig SELL Ketlen Souza 99¢ $448 14d
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig BUY Ketlen Souza 75¢ $344 14d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 SELL Over 100¢ $378 14d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 54¢ $207 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $103 15d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 40¢ $69 16d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $69 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 24 history records