Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:20:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
57 0x571f…23e0 crypto 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$68 (+8%) realized +$69 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate35%21W / 39L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$80
14 days+$76
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$95
crypto 7% −$8
sports 3% −$19
world 0% −$1
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-32.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -17.1% -25.0% 39% 30% +1.0%
≤30d 25 -23.7% -31.0% 36% 28% +0.4%
≤90d 30 -28.3% -35.2% 37% 27% -0.1%
all 60 -25.8% -32.9% 35% 30% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.9% 30% -1.5%
10% -39.3% 28% -10.9%
15% -45.2% 27% -19.5%
20% -50.5% 23% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$3 · ×2.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized+$69
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses21 / 39
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)60 / 63
History coverage114d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $110 $109 −$1 (-1%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$9 +9%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $66 +$35 +53%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$1 -21%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 $0 -10%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$2 -3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $85 +$10 +12%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $60 +$31 +52%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 $0 -5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$2 -54%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $35 +$14 +41%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $31 +$19 +62%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $17 +$18 +105%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $56 −$55 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 18 $54 +$1 +3%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $32 +$22 +70%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 $0 -10%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 11 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Mar 16 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Mar 16 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Mar 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Mar 16 $1 +$1 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Mar 16 $4 +$4 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Mar 16 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 05 $5 −$4 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 05 $1 +$1 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Mar 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $111 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $112 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $102 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $101 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $66 31h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 31h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 31h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 69¢ $49 31h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 32h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 32h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 32h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $95 33h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $85 42h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $91 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $60 3d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 3d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 88¢ $60 3d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $61 3d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 83¢ $50 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 3d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 3d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.22 · official $111.22 (match) · 108 history records