Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:24:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
57 0x5729…d845 tech 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
RISKYcopy with care tech specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%9W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$385per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$645now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 41% +$3
politics 25% +$1
crypto 25% +$1
sports 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 9 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 9 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$645
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses9 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage69d
Avg bet$385
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $645 $645 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $331 $0 +0%
Will Prosperous Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian Nation Jun 14 $336 +$1 +0%
Will Barron Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $306 +$1 +0%
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in May? Jun 11 $307 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $142 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control O Jun 02 $246 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 02 $253 +$1 +0%
Will Aiden Gonzalez be the Democratic nominee for PA-07? May 21 $641 +$1 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of April 13 above $320? Apr 18 $639 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $644.85 · official $644.85 (match) · 20 history records