Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:24:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
57 0x5729…9cfb sports 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$679 (+19%) realized +$541 · open +$138
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate58%25W / 18L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$638now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$432
7 days+$644
14 days+$644
30 days+$644
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$248
other 29% +$618
crypto 2% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +39.2% +25.9% 52% 52% +17.8%
≤30d 23 +39.2% +25.9% 52% 52% +17.8%
≤90d 43 +17.5% +6.3% 58% 56% +9.7%
all 43 +17.5% +6.3% 58% 56% +9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.3% 56% +9.7%
10% -3.9% 47% -0.8%
15% -13.2% 40% -10.4%
20% -21.7% 33% -19.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$49 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$638
Realized+$541
Unrealized+$138
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses25 / 18
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage87d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 74¢ $350 $459 +$109 (+31%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 92¢ $150 $178 +$28 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $304 +$231 +76%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $265 +$167 +63%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$44 +216%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $253 −$250 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$91 +89%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $38 +$94 +249%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $31 −$21 -70%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $102 −$26 -25%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $54 −$53 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $64 −$63 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 +$226 +442%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 +$89 +437%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $101 +$95 +93%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $201 +$25 +13%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $60 −$60 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +41%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $20 +$14 +67%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $40 +$5 +12%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $34 −$34 -99%
LoL: G2 NORD vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - Prime League 1st Divisi Apr 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Apr 12 $50 +$20 +40%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playof Apr 10 $50 −$49 -98%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 10 $60 +$12 +20%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Apr 10 $24 +$6 +26%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs 3DMAX (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Apr 09 $20 +$17 +86%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 09 $70 +$30 +43%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 09 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 04 $94 +$20 +21%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 03 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challen Apr 03 $95 +$27 +29%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs 3DMAX (BO3) - Parken Challenger Championship Apr 03 $70 +$24 +35%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Grou Mar 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gr Mar 23 $80 +$6 +7%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro Mar 23 $50 +$29 +59%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rott Mar 23 $80 +$49 +61%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A Mar 22 $20 −$11 -55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $355 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $151 2h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 100¢ $535 15h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 16h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $304 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $63 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 22h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 45h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $101 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $51 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $203 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $192 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $132 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 59¢ $101 2d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) SELL Germany 11¢ $9 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 25¢ $77 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 32¢ $102 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $48 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $54 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $38 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $64 3d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 35¢ $31 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $277 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $110 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 18¢ $20 3d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 51¢ $101 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $226 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $637.62 · official $637.62 (match) · 76 history records