Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:26:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x572c…4360 world 380 markets active 0h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$74 (+4%) realized +$59 · open +$15
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate61%207W / 132L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day24.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$180now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$64
other 14% +$3
politics 12% +$4
economics 8% +$1
finance 4% +$17
tech 4% +$11
crypto 4% +$2
culture 3% −$12
sports 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -5.0% -14.1% 53% 13% -16.4%
≤30d 61 -3.2% -12.4% 46% 16% -12.4%
≤90d 233 -0.4% -9.9% 56% 20% -10.4%
all 339 +3.7% -6.1% 61% 22% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.1% 22% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -15.1% 14% -15.5%
15% -23.3% 12% -23.7%
20% -30.8% 6% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$180
Realized+$59
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses207 / 132
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions41
Markets (closed)339 / 380
History coverage118d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day24.6
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 339 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 91¢ 99¢ $19 $20 +$2 (+9%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No 29¢ 44¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+51%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+3%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No 26¢ 43¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+63%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 83¢ 99¢ $6 $8 +$1 (+19%)
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? No 60¢ 76¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+26%)
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
AI bubble burst in 2026? No 78¢ 79¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 55¢ 73¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+33%)
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? No 93¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 67¢ 99¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+48%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 48¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+33%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 84¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? No 83¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Discord IPO before 2027? No 37¢ 41¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? Yes 20¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-60%)
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $800b on June 30? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 80¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 -3%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 15 $1 $0 -9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $3 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 13 $2 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 -7%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 -1%
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Jun 13 $3 $0 +16%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
ECB rate hike in 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -90%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $3 $0 +3%
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Jun 06 $22 $0 -1%
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Jun 01 $1 $0 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 01 $1 $0 -1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $2 $0 +3%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? Jun 01 $1 +$1 +56%
Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2 Jun 01 $1 −$1 -50%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $3 +$1 +46%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +10%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $2 +$1 +39%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026? May 31 $3 +$1 +18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $1 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $1 $0 -11%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? May 29 $1 −$1 -71%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 29 $2 $0 -6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? May 29 $1 $0 -4%
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026? May 28 $2 $0 +7%
Will Anthropic have closed its next funding round by June 30, 2026? May 28 $1 $0 +1%
Internet Access restored in Iran by December 31, 2026? May 28 $1 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $5 $0 -3%
Will Caesars Entertainment, Inc. be acquired before 2027? May 28 $1 $0 +10%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 28 $1 $0 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $1 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 27 $1 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 2 May 27 $1 +$1 +66%
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? May 26 $1 $0 -5%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $4 $0 -2%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? May 26 $3 $0 -9%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May? May 24 $1 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $3 $0 -2%
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 22, 2026? May 24 $1 $0 +5%
Will Trump say "Yankee" or "Yankees" during events in Rockland County? May 23 $1 $0 +40%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" or "Dumocrat" or "Dumacrat" during events i May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump's remarks not air? May 22 $1 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 22 $1 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 7m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 16m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 38m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 57m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 76¢ $1 58m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 74¢ $1 3h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 23¢ $1 3h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 25¢ $1 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $1 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $1 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $1 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 73¢ $1 3h
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $1 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $1 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $1 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $1 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $1 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $3 4h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 60¢ $0 8h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $0 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $179.71 · official $175.99 · 3103 history records