Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:59:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x572e…cdee other 56 markets active 17h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$468 (-14%) realized −$468 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate68%30W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% −$487
other 11% +$10
tech 8% +$13
finance 1% −$4
politics 1% −$2
sports 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +7.4% -2.8% 65% 35% -8.4%
≤30d 23 +7.4% -2.8% 65% 35% -8.4%
≤90d 36 +2.2% -7.5% 61% 28% -29.6%
all 44 +3.6% -6.3% 68% 25% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 25% -22.7%
10% -15.3% 20% -30.1%
15% -23.5% 16% -36.8%
20% -31.0% 11% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$42 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$468
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses30 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)44 / 56
History coverage110d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? No 86¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 73¢ 75¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+38%)
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 68¢ 75¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 96¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 98¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 75¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-45%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 27¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $6 $0 +8%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +10%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 +$3 +291%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 $0 -3%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$4 +62%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +180%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 15 $2 $0 -9%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +53%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $54 +$31 +58%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +26%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$11 -76%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 13 $248 +$5 +2%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 02 $242 +$13 +5%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? Apr 27 $242 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Apr 17 $11 −$2 -22%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Apr 17 $20 −$5 -23%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 14 $247 +$3 +1%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Apr 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap Apr 13 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 13 $100 −$1 -1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 13 $1 $0 +29%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Apr 12 $536 −$536 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 11 $242 +$4 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 30 $236 +$6 +2%
Iran leadership change by March 13? Mar 17 $212 +$14 +6%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 17 $10 +$1 +8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 9? Mar 10 $10 $0 +2%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $10 +$5 +48%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 07 $211 +$6 +3%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? Mar 03 $207 +$4 +2%
Khamenei seen in public by March 1? Mar 01 $196 +$10 +5%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $82 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 16h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $5 16h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 99¢ $6 17h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $6 19h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $5 19h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $6 19h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 19h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 20h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $6 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 28h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $1 46h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 61¢ $7 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL Yes 29¢ $2 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 30¢ $2 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $1 3d
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 3d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 3d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.47 · official $21.47 (match) · 121 history records