Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:16:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x572e…68a6 world 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate36%22W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% $0
other 26% $0
sports 16% −$10
politics 11% −$1
economics 2% +$1
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.0% -10.4% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 23 -0.7% -10.1% 35% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 59 +0.3% -9.2% 37% 3% -9.5%
all 61 -3.0% -12.2% 36% 3% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 3% -10.1%
10% -20.6% 3% -18.7%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.6%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses22 / 39
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage486d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $48 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $15 −$1 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $7 $0 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $90 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $49 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $64 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 -7%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $104 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $11 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $74 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $6 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $50 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $18 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $48 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $43 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $44 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $8 −$1 -10%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $21 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 28 $6 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $6 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $29 +$1 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $17 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 18 $3 $0 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $1 $0 +30%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $2 $0 +24%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $63 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $40 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $68 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $26 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $64 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $7 −$1 -7%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 23 $9 $0 +2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $43 +$1 +3%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $7 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $62 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $49 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $26 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $27 $0 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 08 $7 $0 -2%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $43 $0 +0%
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Mar 30 $2 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $48 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $48 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 25h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 25h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $38 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $22 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $14 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $9 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $11 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $38 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $49 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $16 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $12 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $34 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $44 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $2 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $50 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $49 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.83 · official $0.00 (match) · 227 history records