Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:09:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

57
0x572e…872b
weather · 235 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$172 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$299 · open +$127
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$464
Realized−$299
Unrealized+$127
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses133 / 69
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions33
Markets (closed)202 / 235
History coverage34d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day48.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 33 History 202 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$152
7 days−$87
14 days−$810
30 days−$458
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Yes 48¢ 90¢ $139 $261 +$121 (+87%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? No 94¢ 100¢ $96 $102 +$6 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Yes 39¢ 37¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 100¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+113%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? No 90¢ 90¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 88¢ 90¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 55¢ 58¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 65¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $86 +$192 +223%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $104 −$76 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$2 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 −$10 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $65 −$58 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $37 +$103 +277%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $182 −$37 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $16 +$3 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $149 −$57 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $189 −$135 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $42 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 9? Jun 09 $25 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $75 −$73 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $127 +$136 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $43 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $35 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $69 −$57 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 9? Jun 08 $78 −$35 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 08 $1 $0 +35%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $54 +$62 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $55 −$53 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $379 −$252 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 98% −$179
tech 1% +$7
other 0% +$2
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $3 8m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 75¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 75¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 76¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? SELL Yes 29¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 32¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 66¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 69¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 70¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -0.7% -10.1% 72% 28% -14.8%
≤30d 183 -10.4% -18.9% 64% 20% -11.4%
≤90d 202 -9.3% -18.0% 66% 19% -10.2%
all 202 -9.3% -18.0% 66% 19% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover48.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 19% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 13% -18.8%
15% -33.0% 10% -26.7%
20% -39.6% 9% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $464.43 · official $464.43 (match) · 1770 history records