Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:52:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5733…f2e5 other 27 markets active 14h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$74 (+11%) realized +$68 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%13W / 11L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$13
14 days+$54
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% $0
sports 45% +$63
world 3% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -15.3% -23.4% 50% 40% -12.1%
≤30d 24 -7.8% -16.6% 54% 46% -1.4%
≤90d 24 -7.8% -16.6% 54% 46% -1.4%
all 24 -7.8% -16.6% 54% 46% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 46% -1.4%
10% -24.6% 33% -10.8%
15% -31.9% 25% -19.5%
20% -38.6% 25% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$11 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$68
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses13 / 11
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 27
History coverage9d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 +$9 +56%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $22 −$20 -90%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 +$3 +10%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +17%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$3 +18%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$4 -22%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$12 +57%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $30 +$31 +103%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $46 −$22 -48%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -43%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$2 +10%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $70 +$14 +21%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $56 −$5 -9%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 −$15 -37%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $41 +$42 +104%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $26 +$14 +53%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $51 +$31 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $24 13h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 18h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $2 31h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 32h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06 BUY 14¢ $10 45h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 45h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 58¢ $12 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 44¢ $31 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL 47¢ $34 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 42¢ $31 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 70¢ $18 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $11 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 78¢ $12 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 67¢ $20 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.60 · official $35.60 (match) · 88 history records