Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:39:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5735…239d other 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$61 (-1%) realized −$38 · open −$23
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate45%24W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$1,678now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$119
politics 2% +$17
world 2% −$10
finance 2% +$59
crypto 1% −$27
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-35.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 +119.6% +98.6% 100% 100% +114.2%
all 53 -28.3% -35.2% 45% 28% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.2% 28% -11.2%
10% -41.4% 21% -19.7%
15% -47.0% 17% -27.4%
20% -52.2% 13% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +137% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -60% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$45 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$1,678
Realized−$38
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses24 / 29
Open positions3
Markets (closed)53 / 56
History coverage268d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes 76¢ 81¢ $1,304 $1,396 +$92 (+7%)
Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch? Yes 42¢ 32¢ $346 $256 −$89 (-26%)
Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 17¢ $51 $26 −$25 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? May 01 $460 +$316 +69%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? May 01 $234 +$670 +287%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? May 01 $11 +$11 +96%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? May 01 $30 +$8 +27%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 24 $30 −$30 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $5 +$6 +127%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $5 +$15 +300%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Feb 10 $198 −$198 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 09 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 09 $2 −$2 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026? Feb 09 $3 −$3 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? Feb 09 $4 −$4 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Feb 06 $80 −$80 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Feb 06 $143 −$143 -100%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Feb 06 $60 −$15 -26%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 31? Jan 29 $1 $0 +2%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? Jan 29 $1 $0 +4%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Jan 29 $1 $0 +22%
MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in 15 minutes? Jan 29 $57 −$17 -30%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Jan 29 $100 +$4 +4%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Nov 06 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 06 $1 $0 +11%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 06 $1 $0 +12%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $1 $0 +3%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $1 $0 +5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $1 $0 +9%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 30 $1 $0 +39%
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 30 $1 $0 +39%
Will Hyperliquid launch stocks perps in 2025? Oct 30 $78 +$59 +75%
Kinetiq FDV above $250M one day after launch? Oct 25 $118 −$118 -100%
Kinetiq FDV above $2B one day after launch? Oct 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Kinetiq FDV above $1B one day after launch? Oct 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Kinetiq FDV above $500M one day after launch? Oct 25 $105 −$105 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on October 19? Oct 25 $1 $0 +6%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 25 $4 +$1 +28%
Hyperliquid daily fees above $8M in 2025? Oct 25 $121 +$75 +62%
French election called by October 17? Oct 25 $100 +$16 +16%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31? Oct 25 $37 −$37 -100%
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31? Oct 14 $125 −$125 -100%
Lecornu out as French PM by October 31? Oct 14 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 19? Oct 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 19? Oct 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 19? Oct 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Yuichiro Tamaki be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Oct 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 17? Oct 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on October 17? Oct 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? Oct 13 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? Oct 13 $177 −$177 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 76¢ $90 1h
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 75¢ $39 1h
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 75¢ $37 1h
Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 18¢ $46 1h
Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch? BUY Yes 43¢ $172 1h
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 76¢ $155 1h
Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch? BUY Yes 42¢ $188 1h
Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 1h
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 77¢ $313 1h
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 76¢ $692 1h
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? BUY Yes 51¢ $11 91d
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? BUY Yes 79¢ $30 91d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $30 91d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 62¢ $40 134d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 62¢ $40 134d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 134d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 134d
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 134d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 134d
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 134d
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? BUY Yes $2 134d
US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026? BUY Yes $3 134d
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? BUY Yes $4 134d
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? BUY Yes $1 134d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes $19 138d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 138d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? BUY Yes 26¢ $40 138d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? BUY Yes 26¢ $80 138d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 58¢ $200 138d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 138d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,678.23 · official $1,695.53 · 139 history records