Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:28:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
57 0x5737…203d crypto 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 614d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$782 (-7%) realized −$781 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%36W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$315per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,584now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% +$5
politics 47% −$787
other 5% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 37 -0.2% -9.7% 97% 0% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -16.3%
10% -18.4% 0% -24.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -31.7%
20% -33.5% 0% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$792 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

614d coverage
Net worth$1,584
Realized−$781
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses36 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage614d
Avg bet$315
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,585 $1,584 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $2,589 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? Apr 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? Apr 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Apr 02 $54 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 02 $58 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 02 $71 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 11 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? Mar 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 11 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Mar 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? Mar 11 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 11 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 11 $54 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 11 $63 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? Feb 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? Feb 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Feb 19 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85K in September? Feb 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? Feb 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Feb 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? Feb 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Feb 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Feb 19 $36 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be led by another party or coalitio May 29 $3 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high in April? May 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in April? May 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in April? May 29 $54 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in April? May 29 $105 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? May 29 $164 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $558 +$1 +0%
Will Sergei Bobrikov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Jan 30 $37 $0 +0%
Will Sergei Syrankov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Jan 30 $62 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Jan 30 $455 +$4 +1%
Will someone else be inaugurated? Jan 21 $553 +$1 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 24 $5,030 −$792 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1,585 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,589 2d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $71 99d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $29 99d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $58 99d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $36 99d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $54 99d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $54 120d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? BUY No 100¢ $21 120d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $15 120d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? BUY No 99¢ $7 120d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? BUY No 99¢ $15 120d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $29 120d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $36 120d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $63 120d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 100¢ $4 120d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 120d
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $17 270d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $34 270d
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? BUY No 100¢ $28 270d
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $15 270d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $36 270d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? BUY No 100¢ $35 270d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? BUY No 100¢ $35 270d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85K in September? BUY No 100¢ $25 270d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? BUY No 100¢ $21 270d
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? BUY No 100¢ $164 422d
Will Solana reach $300 in April? BUY No 100¢ $15 422d
Will the next Government of Canada be led by another party or coalitio BUY No 100¢ $3 422d
Dogecoin all time high in April? BUY No 100¢ $4 422d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,584.21 · official $1,584.21 (match) · 75 history records