Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:21:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5738…91d0 crypto 848 markets active 9h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$124 (-4%) realized −$124 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%387W / 461L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$9
14 days−$18
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$170
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 +12.6% +1.9% 74% 74% -0.3%
≤30d 261 +2.1% -7.6% 68% 68% -8.1%
≤90d 504 -6.1% -15.1% 59% 58% -18.9%
all 848 -10.5% -19.1% 46% 45% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 45% -14.1%
10% -26.8% 44% -22.3%
15% -33.9% 40% -29.8%
20% -40.4% 38% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$124
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses387 / 461
Open positions0
Markets (closed)848 / 848
History coverage132d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 848 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 33h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 46h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2511 history records