Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

57 0x5739…e8b6 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$1,897 (+45%) realized +$2,103 · open −$206

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +138% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +98% what you keep after slip

Net edge+98%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%5W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$702per market

Trades / day5.6pace

Fees−$43est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+114.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+137.5%	+114.9%	100%	100%	+81.2%
≤30d	5	+137.5%	+114.9%	100%	100%	+81.2%
≤90d	5	+137.5%	+114.9%	100%	100%	+81.2%
all	5	+137.5%	+114.9%	100%	100%	+81.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.6 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+114.9%	100%	+81.2%
10%	+94.3%	100%	+63.8%
15%	+75.6%	100%	+48.0%
20%	+58.4%	100%	+33.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 40% · top 2 67% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +100% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +138% · $-wt +100% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$802 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$2,103

Unrealized−$206

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses5 / 0

Est. fees paid−$43

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage2d

Avg bet$702

Trades / day5.6

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia?	Yes	23¢	0¢	$206	$0	−$206 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$204	+$508	+249%
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$2,097	+$1,602	+76%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	Jun 17	$1,003	+$1,096	+109%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$500	+$505	+101%
Spread: France (-1.5)	Jun 16	$199	+$302	+152%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia?	BUY Yes	23¢	$211	59m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$711	1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5	BUY Over	28¢	$204	1h
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$3,699	1h
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	56¢	$2,097	1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	SELL No	100¢	$2,100	2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	BUY No	47¢	$1,003	7h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	49¢	$500	16h
Spread: France (-1.5)	BUY France	39¢	$199	39h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.45 · official $0.45 (match) · 11 history records