Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:34:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5739…b180 other 422 markets active 1h ago coverage 498d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$272 (+0%) realized +$198 · open +$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate39%143W / 221L
Whale WR5%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$1,285now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$133
7 days−$237
14 days−$163
30 days−$271
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$770
sports 34% +$522
economics 7% −$13
crypto 2% +$40
tech 2% −$65
finance 2% +$41
politics 1% +$100
world 0% −$4
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -2.9% -12.1% 46% 18% -14.1%
≤30d 124 +4.6% -5.3% 42% 19% -12.5%
≤90d 293 -5.7% -14.7% 45% 20% -10.1%
all 364 -6.5% -15.4% 39% 17% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 17% -9.9%
10% -23.5% 10% -18.5%
15% -30.9% 6% -26.4%
20% -37.7% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 5% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$10 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

498d coverage
Net worth$1,285
Realized+$198
Unrealized+$74
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses143 / 221
Whale WR (big bets)5%
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions58
Markets (closed)364 / 422
History coverage498d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 58 History 364 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Decibel FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 66¢ 68¢ $92 $95 +$3 (+4%)
Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 56¢ 55¢ $87 $86 −$1 (-2%)
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? No 41¢ 48¢ $64 $75 +$11 (+17%)
Will Consensys IPO by December 31 2026? No 70¢ 79¢ $56 $63 +$8 (+14%)
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 73¢ 80¢ $56 $61 +$5 (+9%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 6¢ 49¢ $6 $50 +$44 (+755%)
Will Oro launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 78¢ 78¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Will Fomo launch a token by September 30 2026? No 83¢ 83¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 72¢ 80¢ $37 $42 +$5 (+12%)
Will Hibachi launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 76¢ 50¢ $61 $40 −$21 (-35%)
MagicBlock FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 59¢ 74¢ $31 $38 +$8 (+25%)
Neutrl FDV above $20M one day after launch? No 9¢ 49¢ $7 $37 +$30 (+433%)
Concrete FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 42¢ 34¢ $42 $34 −$8 (-19%)
Betmoar FDV above $20M one day after launch? No 37¢ 44¢ $28 $33 +$5 (+18%)
Ledger IPO closing market cap above $3B? No 41¢ 50¢ $26 $32 +$6 (+22%)
Will Pacifica launch a token by September 30 2026? No 82¢ 76¢ $33 $30 −$3 (-8%)
Will Spark launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 59¢ $34 $29 −$5 (-16%)
StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 60¢ 66¢ $24 $27 +$3 (+11%)
Neutrl FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 73¢ 50¢ $38 $26 −$12 (-32%)
Dreamcash FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $22 $22 +$1 (+2%)
Noble FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 87¢ 78¢ $24 $21 −$3 (-11%)
Will QFEX launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 76¢ $21 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 73¢ 70¢ $18 $18 −$1 (-3%)
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 37¢ 79¢ $8 $17 +$9 (+113%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 8¢ 32¢ $4 $17 +$13 (+296%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $6 −$5 -72%
Dreamcash FDV above $20M one day after launch? Jun 17 $35 +$2 +6%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 17 $510 −$2 -0%
Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch? Jun 17 $39 +$6 +14%
MagicBlock FDV above $40M one day after launch? Jun 17 $94 +$6 +7%
Huddle FDV above $10M one day after launch? Jun 17 $35 $0 -1%
Betmoar FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +44%
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $232 +$24 +10%
Aligned FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 17 $21 −$1 -6%
Will Dreamcash launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $104 −$3 -2%
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $229 −$86 -38%
Will Loopscale launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 17 $69 +$6 +9%
Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $150 −$25 -17%
StandX FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 17 $30 +$3 +11%
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $140 −$54 -39%
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 16 $70 −$2 -3%
Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $45 −$1 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 16 $58 −$1 -1%
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 16 $90 +$13 +14%
Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -16%
Hyperbeat FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 16 $34 −$12 -34%
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Jun 16 $188 +$2 +1%
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 16 $35 −$1 -2%
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 16 $44 $0 -1%
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 16 $181 −$5 -3%
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 16 $12 +$2 +20%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 16 $199 −$1 -0%
Will Theo launch a token by December 31 2026? Jun 16 $55 +$9 +17%
Stripe IPO before 2027? Jun 16 $6 −$1 -23%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $39 −$5 -14%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $35 −$8 -22%
Dreamcash FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 15 $18 +$6 +32%
Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch? Jun 15 $71 −$9 -13%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $43 +$2 +4%
Betmoar FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 15 $29 $0 +2%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 15 $90 −$1 -1%
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? Jun 14 $199 −$35 -18%
Will Tread launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $167 −$27 -16%
Felix Protocol FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -51%
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $210 −$25 -12%
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $45 +$1 +1%
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? Jun 14 $38 +$2 +6%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $37 +$1 +4%
Will Oro launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $86 +$11 +13%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $47 +$9 +19%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $82 +$1 +2%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? BUY No 40¢ $10 55m
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 63¢ $29 1h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 56¢ $11 2h
Will Oro launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $28 2h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL Yes 15¢ $7 2h
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 3h
Will Hibachi launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $17 4h
GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 4h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $9 5h
Dreamcash FDV above $20M one day after launch? SELL Yes 72¢ $24 5h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 71¢ $10 5h
Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch? SELL No 45¢ $18 6h
MagicBlock FDV above $40M one day after launch? SELL Yes 57¢ $47 7h
MagicBlock FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 59¢ $32 7h
Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch? SELL No 45¢ $27 7h
Huddle FDV above $10M one day after launch? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 7h
Betmoar FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 8h
Betmoar FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 8h
Will Spark launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $35 8h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 9h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $7 9h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $5 9h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 66¢ $11 9h
Aligned FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL No 78¢ $20 10h
Huddle FDV above $20M one day after launch? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 10h
Huddle FDV above $20M one day after launch? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 10h
Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch? BUY No 35¢ $19 10h
Huddle FDV above $20M one day after launch? SELL No 76¢ $4 11h
Huddle FDV above $20M one day after launch? SELL No 76¢ $12 11h
Huddle FDV above $20M one day after launch? SELL No 76¢ $12 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,285.15 · official $1,285.16 (match) · 2572 history records