Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:06:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x573e…703c crypto 4 markets active 2d ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12,761 (-55%) realized −$5,654 · open −$7,107
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,763per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,563now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$7,107
world 26% −$4,032
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -195% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -195% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
11.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$4,032 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$2,563
Realized−$5,654
Unrealized−$7,107
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1 / 4
History coverage12d
Avg bet$5,763
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 22¢ 8¢ $3,838 $1,328 −$2,510 (-65%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $5,633 $1,155 −$4,478 (-79%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $199 $81 −$119 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $6,000 −$4,032 -67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $212 41h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $1,772 41h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $10 42h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 42h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $8 42h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $10 42h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $1,940 42h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $600 44h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL Yes 21¢ $456 44h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1,000 44h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL Yes 8¢ $1,123 44h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $20 44h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $45 44h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $898 44h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL Yes 19¢ $896 44h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $460 44h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL Yes 5¢ $364 44h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $800 44h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL Yes 19¢ $897 44h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $222 44h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1,000 44h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL Yes 21¢ $1,191 44h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1,000 44h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $459 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $163 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $97 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $12 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,313 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 21¢ $605 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,563.34 · official $2,563.34 (match) · 60 history records