Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:32:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
57 0x5742…d187 other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$38 (+3%) realized +$25 · open +$13
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate63%12W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$73
14 days+$73
30 days−$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$3
sports 44% +$9
tech 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +14.0% +3.1% 71% 57% +15.9%
≤30d 12 +19.3% +7.9% 67% 42% -20.4%
≤90d 19 +15.8% +4.8% 63% 42% -10.0%
all 19 +15.8% +4.8% 63% 42% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.8% 42% -10.0%
10% -5.2% 42% -18.6%
15% -14.4% 37% -26.5%
20% -22.8% 32% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$41 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses12 / 7
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions6
Markets (closed)19 / 25
History coverage34d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 24¢ $14 $28 +$14 (+102%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 76¢ $8 $8 −$1 (-8%)
Will Lautaro Martínez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 74¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $84 −$18 -21%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $31 +$19 +62%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $67 +$33 +50%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $58 +$42 +73%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $5 $0 +10%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $7 −$6 -99%
Will Luis Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $8 +$2 +24%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $6 +$14 +238%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $151 −$149 -99%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $253 −$28 -11%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $19 +$1 +5%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $24 +$26 +109%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $51 +$48 +95%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 24 $19 $0 +1%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Tom Gentzsch vs Roman Safiullin May 22 $117 −$1 -1%
Will SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $140 +$90 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 57m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 67¢ $66 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $84 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $67 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $7 5d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $5 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $31 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 5d
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 19d
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 19d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 20d
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 21d
Will Lautaro Martínez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $8 21d
Will Luis Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $8 21d
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 21d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 22¢ $44 24d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 84¢ $13 27d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 99¢ $99 27d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Rajasthan Royals 84¢ $84 27d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 85¢ $85 27d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 26¢ $25 27d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 95¢ $19 27d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 54¢ $55 28d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals BUY Delhi Capitals 47¢ $24 30d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Rajasthan Royals 99¢ $99 30d
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 100¢ $19 30d
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 99¢ $19 30d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 50¢ $51 31d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 31d
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Tom Gentzsch vs Roman Safiullin SELL Roman Safiullin 90¢ $117 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.99 · official $96.99 (match) · 84 history records