Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:10:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5747…7fdf sports 1530 markets active 2h ago coverage 153d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 153d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,178 (-6%) realized −$4,236 · open +$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%764W / 764L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$656est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$258now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$286
7 days+$145
14 days−$340
30 days−$1,502
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$4,176
other 7% −$119
world 0% −$41
finance 0% −$3
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +2.8% -7.0% 53% 53% -7.5%
≤30d 269 -2.1% -11.4% 55% 53% -14.2%
≤90d 931 -29.8% -36.5% 38% 37% -23.0%
all 1528 -5.1% -14.1% 50% 48% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 48% -15.7%
10% -22.3% 45% -23.7%
15% -29.8% 40% -31.1%
20% -36.7% 32% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$31 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$258
Realized−$4,236
Unrealized+$58
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses764 / 764
Est. fees paid−$656
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1528 / 1530
History coverage153d ⚠
Avg bet$43
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1528 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Evil Geniuses Academy 64¢ 100¢ $100 $157 +$57 (+57%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Nongshim Esports Academy 61¢ 62¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 151 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $101 +$61 +60%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $101 +$67 +66%
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg Jun 17 $101 +$63 +62%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $101 +$69 +68%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $102 +$105 +103%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series Jun 17 $151 +$57 +38%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$42 +42%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $101 −$6 -6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$105 +52%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $192 +$152 +79%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $204 −$88 -43%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $66 −$65 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $142 −$75 -53%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $305 −$191 -62%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $197 +$135 +68%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $157 +$141 +90%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 −$47 -46%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $106 +$99 +93%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $120 −$14 -12%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$60 +59%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 14 $30 +$22 +73%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $25 +$10 +39%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $203 −$182 -90%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $101 −$38 -38%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs Bigetron by Vitality - Game 1 Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $101 +$51 +50%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $153 −$141 -92%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $152 +$145 +95%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $122 +$38 +31%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $182 +$70 +39%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $92 −$9 -10%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $304 −$189 -62%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $99 −$63 -64%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $244 +$112 +46%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs ONIC - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $101 +$44 +43%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $101 +$44 +44%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality - Gam Jun 12 $111 +$85 +76%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +41%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $101 +$71 +70%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $101 −$7 -7%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $101 −$4 -4%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 11 $101 −$2 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 61¢ $101 1h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 64¢ $101 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $101 12h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 99¢ $162 13h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 61¢ $101 14h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 99¢ $168 14h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg SELL ONSIDE GAMING 100¢ $164 14h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $101 15h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 97¢ $170 15h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 57¢ $101 16h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg BUY ONSIDE GAMING 61¢ $101 17h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $206 17h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 48¢ $102 18h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series SELL Carstensz 100¢ $208 18h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 20h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Team Refuser 61¢ $95 21h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 63¢ $101 21h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series BUY Carstensz 72¢ $151 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $307 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 24h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 68¢ $101 27h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 55¢ $192 32h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 20¢ $116 32h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 34¢ $204 33h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $66 47h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 22¢ $67 47h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $142 47h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Team Vitality 16¢ $115 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 40¢ $305 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 99¢ $333 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $258.16 · official $257.34 (match) · 3500 history records