Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:32:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5748…bf22 sports 183 markets active 2h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%9W / 174L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% −$5
politics 24% −$2
other 17% −$2
economics 10% $0
crypto 9% −$9
world 6% $0
culture 5% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 3 -0.5% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 4 -0.6% -10.0% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 183 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses9 / 174
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)183 / 183
History coverage164d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 183 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $28 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $121 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $22 $0 -1%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 18 $22 $0 -1%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 23 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 23 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 23 $27 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 23 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 23 $114 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 23 $45 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 23 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 23 $123 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 23 $234 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 23 $58 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 23 $111 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 23 $61 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 23 $161 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 23 $118 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 23 $72 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 23 $167 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 23 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 23 $53 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $57 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Feb 22 $61 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $69 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? Feb 22 $26 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 22 $56 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $32 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $47 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 22 $114 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)? Feb 22 $28 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? Feb 22 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 22 $28 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 22 $168 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 22 $165 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $89 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 22 $13 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 22 $33 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $30 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 22 $30 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 22 $157 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 22 $62 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $142 $0 +0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 22 $166 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 22 $58 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 21 $27 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $28 1h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $28 8h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $18 8d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $18 8d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $22 19d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $22 19d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $22 31d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $22 33d
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 98¢ $30 115d
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 98¢ $30 115d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 98¢ $28 115d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 98¢ $28 115d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 95¢ $23 115d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 96¢ $23 115d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 95¢ $27 115d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 95¢ $27 115d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 96¢ $5 115d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 96¢ $20 115d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 97¢ $20 115d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 96¢ $19 115d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 96¢ $24 115d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $26 115d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $26 115d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $24 115d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $24 115d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $2 115d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 94¢ $25 115d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $2 115d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 95¢ $25 115d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $23 115d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 658 history records