trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UFC Fight Night: Grant vs. Blackshear | Blackshear | 39¢ | 0¢ | $2,260 | $0 | −$2,260 (-100%) |
| Colts vs. Steelers | Colts | 61¢ | 0¢ | $3,050 | $0 | −$3,050 (-100%) |
| Will PSG win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Yes | 40¢ | 0¢ | $1,000 | $0 | −$1,000 (-100%) |
| Brewers vs. Mariners | Brewers | 46¢ | 0¢ | $5,596 | $0 | −$5,596 (-100%) |
| Swiss Open: Ruud vs. Cerundolo | Ruud | 63¢ | 0¢ | $2,645 | $0 | −$2,645 (-100%) |
| Diamondbacks vs. Pirates | Pirates | 50¢ | 0¢ | $500 | $0 | −$500 (-100%) |
| Will Diddy be sentenced to no prison time? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | $48 | $0 | −$48 (-100%) |
| Twins vs. Dodgers | Twins | 35¢ | 0¢ | $349 | $0 | −$349 (-100%) |
| UFC 318: Prado vs. Veretennikov | Prado | 16¢ | 0¢ | $215 | $0 | −$215 (-100%) |
| Andrew Cuomo gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $90 | $0 | −$90 (-100%) |
| Will Pump.fun launch a token by July 31? | No | 19¢ | 0¢ | $3,351 | $0 | −$3,351 (-100%) |
| Will Junior Caminero win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $202 | $0 | −$202 (-100%) |
| Nuggets vs. Lakers | Lakers | 52¢ | 0¢ | $4,777 | $0 | −$4,777 (-100%) |
| Fever vs Sun | Sun | 9¢ | 0¢ | $14 | $0 | −$14 (-100%) |
| Jazz vs. Spurs | Jazz | 52¢ | 0¢ | $149 | $0 | −$149 (-100%) |
| UFC Fight Night: Buday vs. Buchecha | Buchecha | 58¢ | 0¢ | $1,701 | $0 | −$1,701 (-100%) |
| UFC Fight Night: Salikhov vs. Leal | Leal | 81¢ | 0¢ | $1,946 | $0 | −$1,946 (-100%) |
| Yankees vs. Braves | Braves | 48¢ | 0¢ | $480 | $0 | −$480 (-100%) |
| Orioles vs. Guardians | Guardians | 54¢ | 0¢ | $972 | $0 | −$972 (-100%) |
| UFC 318: Fugitt vs. Dulatov | Fugitt | 14¢ | 0¢ | $140 | $0 | −$140 (-100%) |
| UFC 318: Spann vs. Brzeski | Brzeski | 31¢ | 0¢ | $310 | $0 | −$310 (-100%) |
| Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? | Yes | 43¢ | 0¢ | $2,172 | $0 | −$2,172 (-100%) |
| Red Sox vs. Phillies | Red Sox | 45¢ | 0¢ | $536 | $0 | −$536 (-100%) |
| UFC 318: Ige vs. Pitbull | Ige | 66¢ | 0¢ | $2,601 | $0 | −$2,601 (-100%) |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Coin" 7+ times during the crypto bill signing ceremony on July 18? | No | 9¢ | 0¢ | $207 | $0 | −$207 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Mar 04 | $21,920 | +$732 | +3% |
| X relaunches Vine in 2025? | Jan 05 | $200 | +$208 | +104% |
| U.S. enacts AI safety bill in 2025? | Jan 01 | $1 | +$41 | +4248% |
| Will Elon register the America Party in 2025? | Jan 01 | $61 | +$63 | +104% |
| Will Opensea launch a token by December 31? | Jan 01 | $287 | +$1,148 | +400% |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31? | Jan 01 | $1,152 | +$1,609 | +140% |
| X Money launch in 2025? | Jan 01 | $849 | +$3,383 | +398% |
| Kraken IPO in 2025? | Jan 01 | $2,685 | +$3,561 | +133% |
| Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? | Dec 10 | $2,192 | +$3,066 | +140% |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | Nov 30 | $3,110 | −$263 | -8% |
| Colts vs. Steelers | Nov 02 | $3,050 | −$3,050 | -100% |
| Hyperliquid daily fees above $8M in 2025? | Sep 04 | $2,443 | −$2,443 | -100% |
| Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? | Sep 04 | $1,613 | +$455 | +28% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? | Aug 18 | $1,020 | +$1,980 | +194% |
| Mariners vs. Mets | Aug 16 | $835 | +$1,219 | +146% |
| Rangers vs. Mariners | Aug 04 | $198 | +$352 | +178% |
| Dan Bongino out as Deputy Director of the FBI by July 31? | Aug 02 | $873 | +$1,310 | +150% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? | Aug 02 | $2,496 | +$2,304 | +92% |
| Will GPT-5 be released by August 15? | Jul 31 | $1,280 | −$1,280 | -100% |
| Will GPT-5 be released by August 31? | Jul 31 | $2,141 | −$2,141 | -100% |
| UFC Fight Night: Almabayev vs. Ochoa | Jul 26 | $4,953 | −$4,953 | -100% |
| UFC Fight Night: Mitchell vs. Nurmagomedov | Jul 26 | $7,035 | −$7,035 | -100% |
| UFC Fight Night: Salikhov vs. Leal | Jul 26 | $1,946 | −$1,946 | -100% |
| UFC Fight Night: Grant vs. Blackshear | Jul 26 | $2,260 | −$2,260 | -100% |
| UFC Fight Night: Yahya vs. Nguyen | Jul 26 | $3,683 | +$1,223 | +33% |
| UFC Fight Night: Buday vs. Buchecha | Jul 26 | $1,701 | −$1,701 | -100% |
| Phillies vs. Yankees | Jul 26 | $2,001 | +$2,748 | +137% |
| Mariners vs. Angels | Jul 26 | $2,055 | −$2,055 | -100% |
| Mets vs. Giants | Jul 26 | $140 | −$140 | -100% |
| Diamondbacks vs. Pirates | Jul 26 | $500 | −$500 | -100% |
| Marlins vs. Brewers | Jul 25 | $4,059 | −$4,059 | -100% |
| Athletics vs. Astros | Jul 25 | $1,078 | −$1,078 | -100% |
| Red Sox vs. Phillies | Jul 25 | $220 | +$405 | +184% |
| Angels vs. Mets | Jul 24 | $8 | +$2 | +28% |
| Orioles vs. Guardians | Jul 24 | $972 | −$972 | -100% |
| Twins vs. Dodgers | Jul 23 | $349 | −$349 | -100% |
| Brewers vs. Mariners | Jul 23 | $5,689 | −$5,590 | -98% |
| UEFA Women's Euro: England vs. Italy (To Advance) | Jul 23 | $4,627 | +$1,548 | +34% |
| Cardinals vs. Rockies | Jul 22 | $3,795 | +$1,695 | +45% |
| Angels vs. Mets | Jul 22 | $429 | −$429 | -100% |
| Red Sox vs. Phillies | Jul 22 | $536 | −$536 | -100% |
| Reds vs. Mets | Jul 21 | $2,438 | −$2,421 | -99% |
| Swiss Open: Cerundolo vs. Bublik | Jul 20 | $4,938 | +$2,674 | +54% |
| UFC 318: Holland vs. Rodriguez | Jul 20 | $670 | +$330 | +49% |
| Boxing – Pacquiao vs. Barrios | Jul 20 | $7,160 | −$2,319 | -32% |
| UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier | Jul 20 | $4,400 | +$2,845 | +65% |
| UFC 318: Johnson vs. Zellhuber | Jul 20 | $3,823 | +$413 | +11% |
| UFC 318: Phillips vs. Oliveira | Jul 20 | $1,145 | +$832 | +73% |
| UFC 318: Ige vs. Pitbull | Jul 20 | $2,625 | −$2,607 | -99% |
| Yankees vs. Braves | Jul 20 | $480 | −$480 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | no closed markets | |||||
| all | 394 | +14.4% | +3.5% | 50% | 48% | -12.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +3.5% | 48% | -12.1% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -6.4% | 45% | -20.5% |
| 15% | -15.4% | 39% | -28.2% |
| 20% | -23.7% | 32% | -35.2% |