Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:56:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x574e…befb sports 8 markets active 13h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,265 (-30%) realized −$2,265 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$938per market
Trades / day27.7pace
Fees−$144est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$2,338
other 16% −$115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -16.2% -24.2% 25% 25% -39.1%
≤30d 8 -16.2% -24.2% 25% 25% -39.1%
≤90d 8 -16.2% -24.2% 25% 25% -39.1%
all 8 -16.2% -24.2% 25% 25% -39.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.2% 25% -39.1%
10% -31.4% 12% -45.0%
15% ← realistic here -38.0% 12% -50.3%
20% -44.1% 12% -55.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$389 vs −$539 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,265
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$144
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$938
Trades / day27.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $655 −$645 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $3,039 −$2,396 -79%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $411 −$57 -14%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $410 −$33 -8%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $411 −$24 -6%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $940 +$619 +66%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $782 +$160 +20%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $858 −$76 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 51¢ $655 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 SELL Over 7¢ $643 13h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $3,039 24h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $354 24h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $377 24h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $386 24h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 80¢ $591 34h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 80¢ $4 34h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 80¢ $8 34h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 80¢ $6 34h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 80¢ $400 34h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 80¢ $3 34h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 80¢ $29 34h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 80¢ $2 34h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 80¢ $2 34h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 80¢ $2 34h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 80¢ $90 34h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 80¢ $49 34h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 80¢ $27 34h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 80¢ $27 34h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 80¢ $91 34h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 80¢ $2 34h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 80¢ $14 34h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 80¢ $87 34h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 80¢ $114 34h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 80¢ $2 34h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 80¢ $2 34h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 80¢ $6 34h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $940 37h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $942 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records