Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:14:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x574f…f90a other 121 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$40 (-0%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%17W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$21
politics 25% −$13
sports 18% −$10
crypto 10% −$6
culture 6% −$2
world 4% $0
economics 3% −$1
finance 2% $0
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -0.5% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 88 -0.4% -9.9% 14% 0% -9.9%
all 120 -0.3% -9.8% 14% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses17 / 103
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)120 / 121
History coverage112d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 95¢ 95¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $69 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $60 $0 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $184 −$1 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $255 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 16 $65 −$1 -2%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 16 $184 −$3 -2%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $67 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 15 $131 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 15 $70 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $123 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $75 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $124 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $241 −$1 -0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 13 $167 −$1 -1%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 13 $76 $0 -0%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 12 $87 −$1 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $113 −$1 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $391 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $156 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $200 −$2 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $189 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $201 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 10 $166 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $102 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 09 $179 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 08 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 08 $63 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $61 $0 -0%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-14? May 07 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $40 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $114 −$1 -1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 06 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 06 $308 −$2 -1%
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 06 $45 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $51 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? May 05 $42 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $55 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $198 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $54 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 03 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $40 −$1 -2%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 01 $111 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $215 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $55 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 27 $84 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $70 1h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $66 7d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $66 7d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 94¢ $68 15d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 94¢ $69 15d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $60 22d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $11 22d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $49 22d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $71 30d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $72 30d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $63 43d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $64 43d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? SELL No 96¢ $64 43d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 98¢ $65 44d
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 92¢ $76 44d
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 93¢ $77 44d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $67 44d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $67 44d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $67 44d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $68 45d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $64 45d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $64 45d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? SELL No 98¢ $70 45d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 98¢ $70 45d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $67 45d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $68 45d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $65 45d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $65 46d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $74 46d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $75 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.07 · official $70.07 (match) · 468 history records