Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:34:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
57 0x574f…8ce9 crypto 74 markets active 4d ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,305 (-7%) realized −$3,305 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%39W / 35L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$639per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,341
14 days−$1,341
30 days−$1,341
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,635
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -25.3% -32.4% 43% 43% -52.6%
≤30d 21 -25.3% -32.4% 43% 43% -52.6%
≤90d 74 -3.0% -12.3% 53% 49% -16.5%
all 74 -3.0% -12.3% 53% 49% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 49% -16.5%
10% -20.7% 43% -24.5%
15% -28.3% 38% -31.8%
20% -35.4% 30% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$999) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +28% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$290 vs −$427 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,305
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses39 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)74 / 74
History coverage83d
Avg bet$639
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 74 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $915 −$878 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $82 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $39 +$45 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $306 −$300 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $205 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $113 −$110 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $162 +$39 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $103 +$53 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $306 +$115 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $101 −$98 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $71 −$69 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $96 +$76 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $41 +$53 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $19 +$21 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $155 +$118 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 25 $271 −$267 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Mar 25 $144 +$127 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 25 $80 +$64 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 24 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 24 $150 −$148 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 24 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 24 $600 −$600 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 24 $1,291 −$1,291 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Mar 24 $894 −$894 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 24 $58 −$57 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 24? Mar 24 $2,922 −$1,919 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 24 $100 +$112 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 24 $685 +$209 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Mar 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 24 $1,460 +$430 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 24 $569 +$346 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Mar 24 $308 −$305 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Mar 24 $1,000 −$985 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Mar 24 $1,000 +$480 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Mar 24 $98 +$109 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Mar 24 $1,430 +$703 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Mar 24 $1,056 +$374 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Mar 24 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Mar 24 $1,007 +$72 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 39¢ $423 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 44¢ $16 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 43¢ $466 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $53 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $82 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $83 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $39 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $35 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $306 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $205 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $52 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $113 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $201 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $162 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $155 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $422 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $306 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $101 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $71 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $96 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $19 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $155 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 153 history records