trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +3.3% | -6.5% | 20% | 20% | -49.1% |
| ≤30d | 10 | +8.1% | -2.2% | 40% | 30% | -25.9% |
| ≤90d | 10 | +8.1% | -2.2% | 40% | 30% | -25.9% |
| all | 10 | +8.1% | -2.2% | 40% | 30% | -25.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -2.2% | 30% | -25.9% |
| 10% | -11.6% | 30% | -33.0% |
| 15% | -20.1% | 30% | -39.4% |
| 20% | -27.9% | 20% | -45.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 6¢ | 6¢ | $20 | $19 | −$1 (-7%) |
| Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | Yes | 25¢ | 24¢ | $10 | $9 | −$1 (-6%) |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $20 | $2 | −$18 (-88%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on | Jun 23 | $243 | −$28 | -12% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026? | Jun 23 | $10 | +$34 | +328% |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 20 | $7 | −$7 | -98% |
| Iraq leading at halftime? | Jun 16 | $103 | −$100 | -97% |
| Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $102 | −$100 | -98% |
| US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? | Jun 15 | $50 | +$18 | +35% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET | Jun 15 | $26 | −$25 | -96% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 15 | $150 | −$55 | -37% |
| Sweden leading at halftime? | Jun 15 | $24 | +$40 | +165% |
| Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? | Jun 14 | $504 | +$4 | +1% |