Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:23:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5754…7be0 crypto 56 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$51 (-7%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate71%40W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$69
14 days−$69
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$36
other 29% +$31
sports 19% −$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -7.6% -16.4% 71% 43% -18.6%
≤30d 56 -7.6% -16.4% 71% 43% -18.6%
≤90d 56 -7.6% -16.4% 71% 43% -18.6%
all 56 -7.6% -16.4% 71% 43% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 43% -18.6%
10% -24.4% 29% -26.4%
15% -31.7% 20% -33.5%
20% -38.4% 11% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses40 / 16
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage7d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 23 $18 +$7 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $19 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 23 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 23 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 23 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 23 $18 +$13 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 23 $37 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $37 +$2 +6%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +29%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $3 +$2 +76%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $8 +$1 +19%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $6 +$3 +53%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $4 +$1 +15%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +43%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $7 +$1 +16%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 20 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 20 $7 −$4 -55%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$6 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 20 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $2 $0 +20%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $6 +$4 +67%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $5 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +3%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 +$1 +32%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $12 −$1 -11%
Spread: Panama (-1.5) Jun 17 $14 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $18 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $19 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $19 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $18 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $14 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $12 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $27 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $37 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $5 5h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 100¢ $5 8h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 93¢ $9 9h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 78¢ $8 12h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $3 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 96¢ $10 14h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL No 89¢ $4 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 16h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $4 17h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 30h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 98¢ $1 30h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 98¢ $7 30h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 83¢ $5 30h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $2 32h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 32h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $4 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 159 history records