Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:51:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5754…8651 crypto 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5 (-2%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 64d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$59
politics 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -18.8% -26.6% 57% 50% -27.8%
≤30d 14 -18.8% -26.6% 57% 50% -27.8%
≤90d 14 -18.8% -26.6% 57% 50% -27.8%
all 14 -18.8% -26.6% 57% 50% -27.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.6% 50% -27.8%
10% -33.6% 43% -34.7%
15% -40.0% 29% -41.0%
20% -45.9% 21% -46.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$24 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage64d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 29 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$11 +44%
Will Trump dance today? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$28 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 29 $27 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 29 $31 +$16 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records