Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:47:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5755…5092 crypto 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$112 (+10%) realized −$58 · open +$170
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$904now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days−$45
14 days−$45
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$124
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -8.0% -16.7% 40% 30% -19.7%
≤30d 12 -6.6% -15.5% 42% 25% -19.7%
≤90d 12 -6.6% -15.5% 42% 25% -19.7%
all 12 -6.6% -15.5% 42% 25% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 25% -19.7%
10% -23.6% 25% -27.4%
15% -31.0% 8% -34.4%
20% -37.8% 0% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$11 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$904
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$170
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Open positions19
Markets (closed)12 / 31
History coverage7d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? No 68¢ 97¢ $51 $73 +$22 (+44%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 28? No 71¢ 94¢ $50 $67 +$17 (+33%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? No 72¢ 95¢ $51 $67 +$16 (+32%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? No 66¢ 84¢ $50 $63 +$13 (+27%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? No 67¢ 78¢ $51 $59 +$9 (+17%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? No 47¢ 86¢ $31 $58 +$26 (+84%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 28? No 48¢ 81¢ $33 $56 +$23 (+69%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? No 52¢ 56¢ $51 $55 +$4 (+8%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? No 54¢ 59¢ $49 $54 +$5 (+10%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? No 53¢ 56¢ $50 $54 +$3 (+7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 30? No 50¢ 52¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 30? No 62¢ 76¢ $37 $46 +$8 (+23%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 25? No 62¢ 68¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+9%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 27? No 68¢ 73¢ $35 $38 +$3 (+7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? No 51¢ 55¢ $31 $33 +$2 (+7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 27? No 83¢ 88¢ $27 $29 +$1 (+5%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? No 74¢ 94¢ $19 $24 +$5 (+26%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? No 80¢ 99¢ $17 $21 +$4 (+23%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 25? No 77¢ 94¢ $14 $17 +$3 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $51 +$19 +36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $39 +$11 +27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $11 +$3 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? Jun 20 $51 −$15 -30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 21? Jun 20 $34 −$9 -26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? Jun 19 $55 −$18 -32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? Jun 19 $57 −$20 -34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 19 $44 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $23 −$1 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $35 −$15 -44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 30? BUY No 50¢ $49 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? BUY No 51¢ $32 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 62¢ $42 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? BUY No 52¢ $53 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY No 53¢ $52 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY No 54¢ $51 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 27? BUY No 68¢ $36 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 83¢ $27 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? BUY No 67¢ $52 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? BUY No 66¢ $51 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 30? BUY No 62¢ $38 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 74¢ $19 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 25? BUY No 77¢ $14 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 28? BUY No 48¢ $34 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY No 47¢ $32 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 28? BUY No 71¢ $51 33h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY No 80¢ $17 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 72¢ $52 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? BUY No 68¢ $52 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? SELL No 96¢ $50 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? SELL No 54¢ $36 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 21? SELL No 62¢ $25 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? SELL No 32¢ $14 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? SELL No 18¢ $11 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 25¢ $18 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? BUY No 46¢ $21 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? SELL No 35¢ $6 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? SELL No 77¢ $45 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? SELL No 49¢ $24 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 44¢ $8 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $904.29 · official $901.38 (match) · 51 history records