Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:31:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
57 0x5759…d575 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 587d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$259 (+20%) realized +$239 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +163% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +138% what you keep after slip
Net edge+138%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$204
crypto 45% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+137.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +13.6% +2.8% 100% 100% +2.8%
≤30d 1 +13.6% +2.8% 100% 100% +2.8%
≤90d 1 +13.6% +2.8% 100% 100% +2.8%
all 9 +162.6% +137.6% 56% 56% +12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +137.6% 56% +12.5%
10% +114.8% 44% +1.7%
15% +94.1% 22% -8.1%
20% +75.0% 22% -17.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +163% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$43 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.38 per $1 lost it wins $2.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

587d coverage
Net worth$222
Realized+$239
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage587d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 86¢ $86 $86 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 15¢ $55 $74 +$19 (+35%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $61 $62 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 25 $88 +$12 +14%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 29 $345 −$134 -39%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15? Dec 17 $30 +$9 +30%
Over 25,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? Dec 11 $288 +$69 +24%
Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? Dec 05 $300 −$14 -5%
Will ZKsync win 2025 Uniswap Cup? Nov 17 $20 +$319 +1595%
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? Nov 16 $5 +$3 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $62 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $87 1h
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 88¢ $88 177d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $25 177d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? SELL No 42¢ $211 178d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $32 190d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $4 191d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $26 191d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $55 191d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY No 27¢ $54 195d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY No 27¢ $108 195d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY No 26¢ $44 195d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY No 26¢ $52 195d
Over 25,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? BUY No 88¢ $88 201d
Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? SELL No 12¢ $86 201d
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15? BUY No 77¢ $30 202d
Over 25,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? BUY No 81¢ $100 202d
Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? BUY No 17¢ $50 202d
Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? BUY No 12¢ $50 202d
Over 25,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? BUY No 75¢ $100 202d
Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? SELL Yes 88¢ $200 202d
Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? BUY Yes 88¢ $200 202d
Will ZKsync win 2025 Uniswap Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $20 225d
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? BUY No 31¢ $5 238d
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? BUY No 4¢ $20 239d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 587d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $222.45 · official $222.45 (match) · 220 history records