Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:12:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x575a…bba6 sports 185 markets active 9h ago coverage 497d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13,376 (-1%) realized −$10,728 · open −$2,648
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%62W / 121L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,171per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$6,380est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$8,509now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3,459
14 days+$65,865
30 days+$54,416
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$14,581
other 4% −$752
crypto 1% +$12,499
culture 1% −$10,000
economics 1% −$3,750
politics 0% −$900
tech 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +120.5% +99.5% 67% 67% +52.5%
≤30d 19 +23.1% +11.3% 42% 42% +24.8%
≤90d 76 -18.2% -26.0% 32% 29% -10.1%
all 183 -17.7% -25.6% 34% 32% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.6% 32% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -32.7% 30% -19.3%
15% -39.2% 25% -27.1%
20% -45.1% 20% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$8,500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -25% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7,207 vs −$3,815 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

497d coverage
Net worth$8,509
Realized−$10,728
Unrealized−$2,648
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses62 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$6,380
Open positions2
Markets (closed)183 / 185
History coverage497d
Avg bet$6,171
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4,987 $6,609 +$1,622 (+33%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6,170 $1,900 −$4,269 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2,047 −$2,000 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1,024 +$3,976 +388%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $2,026 +$1,483 +73%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $28,921 +$65,256 +226%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,175 −$1,160 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $39,036 +$12,551 +32%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 13 $1,023 −$91 -9%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $1,023 −$1,000 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10,312 +$8,188 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $21,625 −$21,337 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $1,035 +$965 +93%
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P Jun 06 $9 −$8 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $1,070 −$1,060 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $8,944 +$11,056 +124%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,043 +$12,617 +415%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $13,796 −$13,500 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Learner Tien May 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $871 −$870 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $20,863 −$20,600 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $1,835 −$1,800 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $750 +$4,250 +567%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $2,070 +$4,080 +197%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $2,031 +$2,020 +100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $993 −$975 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $782 −$767 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $1,613 +$336 +21%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $751 +$1,417 +189%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $2,232 +$2,965 +133%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 10 $3,135 +$1,865 +60%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $11,020 +$5,508 +50%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $1,070 −$1,050 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $1,075 +$1,338 +124%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 06 $114 −$111 -97%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $780 −$762 -98%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 03 $1,329 −$1,300 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $2,931 −$2,855 -97%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $4,245 −$474 -11%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $382 −$371 -97%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $504 −$490 -97%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $565 −$550 -97%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 30 $2,367 −$2,312 -98%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 27 $800 −$780 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 27 $1,000 −$976 -98%
Magic vs. Rockets Apr 25 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Warriors Apr 25 $5,687 −$5,687 -100%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $2,271 −$2,271 -100%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Apr 25 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Apr 25 $25,000 −$25,000 -100%
Magic vs. Celtics Apr 25 $1,830 −$1,830 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $412 9h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 14h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 14h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 14h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $458 14h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $174 14h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 14h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 14h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 14h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $43 14h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $2,047 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $13 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $75 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $19 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $40 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,509.13 · official $8,540.01 (match) · 2310 history records