Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:22:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5762…e8b9 other 170 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$62 (-0%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%24W / 145L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$23
14 days−$32
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$38
politics 30% −$26
sports 17% −$11
crypto 6% −$3
culture 4% −$5
economics 4% −$2
finance 3% −$4
world 2% −$1
tech 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -1.1% -10.5% 16% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 75 -0.9% -10.3% 11% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 155 -0.6% -10.1% 12% 0% -9.9%
all 169 -0.6% -10.1% 14% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses24 / 145
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)169 / 170
History coverage102d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $64 $64 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 20 $54 $0 -1%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $55 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $232 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $268 $0 -0%
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 18 $71 −$2 -3%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $73 −$6 -9%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $130 $0 -0%
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 17 $71 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $245 −$2 -1%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $53 −$2 -4%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $61 −$1 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 16 $43 −$1 -3%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $369 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $43 $0 +1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $175 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $277 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 15 $59 −$1 -2%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $109 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $59 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $113 −$1 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $42 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $140 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $245 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $233 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $116 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $172 −$4 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $213 $0 +0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $126 −$1 -1%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $50 $0 -0%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 07 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $0 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 06 $106 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $56 −$3 -6%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 05 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $106 −$1 -1%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $147 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $196 −$1 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $57 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $49 $0 +0%
Will Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 03 $47 −$1 -1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $288 −$1 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 02 $38 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 02 $48 −$4 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $64 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $54 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $35 9h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $19 9h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $60 10h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $61 14h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 90¢ $55 14h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 91¢ $55 18h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $54 19h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $55 23h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $60 24h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $60 28h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $62 28h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $62 33h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $57 34h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 42h
Will the Buffalo Sabres be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL No 94¢ $68 42h
Will the Buffalo Sabres be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 97¢ $71 46h
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $67 47h
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $2 2d
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $71 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $70 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $70 2d
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 97¢ $71 2d
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 97¢ $71 2d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 93¢ $55 2d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 93¢ $55 2d
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $51 3d
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $53 3d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 92¢ $60 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.20 · official $64.20 (match) · 720 history records